Premier League · 2024Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fulham

DLWLW

2–1Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fulham	Nottingham Forest
Shots	24 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.18 xG/match▲	0.42 xG/match
Possession	56%●	44%
Corners	8 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fulham: 24 shots, 10 on target, 2.24 xG. Nottingham Forest: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fulham 2.24 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.44 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fulham have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.64 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.64 goals/match	1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Fulham have recorded the higher season possession share.

53%●PossessionFulham · Nottingham Forest39.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Fulham	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	53%	39.8%	50.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Fulham

0Draws

1Nottingham Forest

28 Sept 2024Nottingham Forest — Fulham · Premier League0–1

2 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest — Fulham · Premier League3–1

6 Dec 2023Fulham — Nottingham Forest · Premier League5–0

11 Feb 2023Fulham — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

16 Sept 2022Nottingham Forest — Fulham · Premier League2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 3 · 5 too close

1.52 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲1.64 goals/match

1.32 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.16 goals/match

1.43 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 25/251.31 xG/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/251.17 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2512.7 shots/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2513.7 shots/match

4.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/254.64 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/254.76 shots/match

53%●Possessionseason · 25/2539.8%

5.28 corners/match●Cornersseason · 25/254.36 corners/match

4.4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/256.36 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2510.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲40%

88%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2584%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham67.5

Nottingham Forest2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham60

Nottingham Forest46.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham73.3

Nottingham Forest52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham57.5

Nottingham Forest92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham37.5

Nottingham Forest17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham57.5

Nottingham Forest27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham56.2

Nottingham Forest31.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fulham25 matchesNottingham Forest25 matches

1.52 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲1.64 goals/match

1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.16 goals/match

1.43 xG/match▲Expected goals25/251.31 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shots25/2512.7 shots/match

4.88 shots/matchShots on target25/254.64 shots/match

53%●Possession25/2539.8%

5.28 corners/match●Corners25/254.36 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fulham13 matchesNottingham Forest13 matches

1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.46 goals/match

1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed13/131.46 goals/match

1.36 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.16 xG/match

14.5 shots/match▲Shots13/1312 shots/match

5.62 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134.31 shots/match

53.3%●Possession13/1335.8%

5.54 corners/match●Corners13/134.15 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4