Premier League · 2024Wed, 26 Feb 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeHistorical match

Nottingham Forest

WLWLL

0–0Historical match

Arsenal

DWWWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal
Shots	6 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	0.4 xG/match	0.99 xG/match▲
Possession	35%	65%●
Corners	3 corners/match	11 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.38 xG. Arsenal: 13 shots, 1 on target, 0.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.38 xG · Arsenal 0.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.63 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest.

3.23 days▲Rest daysNottingham Forest · Arsenal4.19 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal	Baseline
Rest days	3.23 days	4.19 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Arsenal have a visible away split

moderate

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.6 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

0Draws

4Arsenal

23 Nov 2024Arsenal — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0

30 Jan 2024Nottingham Forest — Arsenal · Premier League1–2

12 Aug 2023Arsenal — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–1

20 May 2023Nottingham Forest — Arsenal · Premier League1–0

30 Oct 2022Arsenal — Nottingham Forest · Premier League5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 9 · 3 too close

1.63 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.89 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.85 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/27▲1.61 xG/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.86 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲13.8 shots/match

13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲9.78 shots/match

4.56 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲4.81 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲3.22 shots/match

39.8%Possessionseason · 27/27●55.9%

4.37 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/27●6.48 corners/match

6.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲2.81 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2711.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

41%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2737%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2781%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest2.5

Arsenal77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest46.7

Arsenal64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest50

Arsenal95

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest87.5

Arsenal37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest17.5

Arsenal52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest27.5

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest32.5

Arsenal62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest27 matchesArsenal27 matches

1.63 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.89 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲0.85 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals27/27▲1.61 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots27/27▲13.8 shots/match

4.56 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲4.81 shots/match

39.8%Possession27/27●55.9%

4.37 corners/matchCorners27/27●6.48 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest13 matchesArsenal14 matches

1.69 goals/matchGoals scored13/141.71 goals/match

0.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/140.86 goals/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals13/141.45 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots13/1410.6 shots/match

4.77 shots/match▲Shots on target13/143.57 shots/match

43.5%Possession13/14●53.4%

4.46 corners/matchCorners13/14●5.14 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls13/1411.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.23 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.19 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 26 Feb 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4