Premier League · 2024Sun, 9 Mar 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester United

WLLDW

1–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Arsenal
Shots	10 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.52 xG/match	1.62 xG/match▲
Possession	32%	68%●
Corners	2 corners/match	9 corners/match●
Fouls	8 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester United: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.52 xG. Arsenal: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 1.52 xG · Arsenal 1.67 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Arsenal have a visible away split

moderate

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13 shots/match▲ShotsManchester United · Arsenal13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester United	Arsenal	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13.1 shots/match
Shots against	11.6 shots/match	9.79 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Manchester United

0Draws

4Arsenal

4 Dec 2024Arsenal — Manchester United · Premier League2–0

12 May 2024Manchester United — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

3 Sept 2023Arsenal — Manchester United · Premier League3–1

22 Jan 2023Arsenal — Manchester United · Premier League3–2

4 Sept 2022Manchester United — Arsenal · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 11 · 2 too close

1.21 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/28▲1.86 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲0.86 goals/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 28/28▲1.61 xG/match

1.59 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 28/28▲0.88 xG/match

13 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/28▲13.9 shots/match

11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/28▲9.79 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲4.86 shots/match

4.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲3.32 shots/match

52.9%Possessionseason · 28/28●56.4%

5 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/28●6.57 corners/match

4.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/28▲2.79 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2811.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲36%

64%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/28▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United72.5

Arsenal77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United40

Arsenal68.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United59.2

Arsenal92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United32.5

Arsenal37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United32.5

Arsenal55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United52.5

Arsenal87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United44.4

Arsenal67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United28 matchesArsenal28 matches

1.21 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲1.86 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲0.86 goals/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲1.61 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots28/28▲13.9 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲4.86 shots/match

52.9%Possession28/28●56.4%

5 corners/matchCorners28/28●6.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United15 matchesArsenal15 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.67 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲0.87 goals/match

1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.46 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots15/1511 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.73 shots/match

52.9%Possession15/15●54.4%

5.27 corners/matchCorners15/15●5.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.9 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Mar 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4