PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Chelsea 1–0 Leicester City · Premier League

Chelsea

LWLLW
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Chelsea won 1–0.

Shots
203
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
1.780.1
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chelsea beat Leicester City 1–0. Recorded in this match (Chelsea – Leicester City): shots 20–3, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 1.78–0.1, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Leicester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.2 shots/match ▲ShotsChelsea · Leicester City8.93 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChelseaLeicester CityBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match8.93 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match16.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.3% ●PossessionChelsea · Leicester City45.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricChelseaLeicester CityBaseline
Possession58.3%45.5%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots3 shotsChelsea 20 shots, Leicester City 3 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsChelsea 7 shots, Leicester City 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.78 xG0.1 xGChelsea 1.78 xG, Leicester City 0.1 xG
  • Possession57%43%Chelsea 57%, Leicester City 43%
  • Corners12 corners2 cornersChelsea 12 corners, Leicester City 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls13 foulsChelsea 12 fouls, Leicester City 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Enzo Fernández · Chelsea · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Leicester City · 52′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLevi Colwill · Chelsea · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTosin Adarabioyo · Chelsea · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cucurella · Chelsea · 60′ · 0.03 xG · goalWesley Fofana · Chelsea · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 67′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRicardo Pereira · Leicester City · 85′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBilal El Khannouss · Leicester City · 7′ · 0.05 xG · on targetChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 23′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 28′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 8′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJadon Sancho · Chelsea · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cucurella · Chelsea · 46′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 70′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.08 xG · on targetEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 28′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 75′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 22′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 20 shots, 7 on target, 1.83 xG. Leicester City: 3 shots, 3 on target, 0.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Marc Cucurella · Chelsea · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 1.83 xG · Leicester City 0.11 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Chelsea
1Draws
0Leicester City
Leicester City — Chelsea · Premier League1–2
Leicester City — Chelsea · Premier League1–3
Chelsea — Leicester City · Premier League2–1
Chelsea — Leicester City · Premier League1–1
Leicester City — Chelsea · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chelsea favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Leicester City in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chelsea28 matchesLeicester City28 matches
1.89 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/280.89 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/282.21 goals/match
2.01 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/280.88 xG/match
16.2 shots/match ▲Shots28/288.93 shots/match
5.96 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/283.04 shots/match
58.3% ●Possession28/2845.5%
6.04 corners/match ●Corners28/283.54 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2810.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChelseaLeicester City
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headChelsea — Leicester City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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