Premier League · 2024Sun, 18 May 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

DWDLD

1–0Full-time recap

Newcastle United

WLWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Newcastle United
Shots	12 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.64 xG/match	1.86 xG/match▲
Possession	51%●	49%
Corners	10 corners/match●	7 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.66 xG. Newcastle United: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 0.66 xG · Newcastle United 1.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

weak

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.84 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.84 goals/match	1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.57 corners/match●CornersArsenal · Newcastle United5.54 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Newcastle United	Baseline
Corners	6.57 corners/match	5.54 corners/match	5.02 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Arsenal

1Draws

2Newcastle United

2 Nov 2024Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League1–0

24 Feb 2024Arsenal — Newcastle United · Premier League4–1

4 Nov 2023Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League1–0

7 May 2023Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League0–2

3 Jan 2023Arsenal — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 1 · 6 too close

1.81 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 37/371.84 goals/match

0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 37/371.24 goals/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 37/37▲1.74 xG/match

0.93 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 37/371.23 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 37/3713.6 shots/match

9.59 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 37/3712.3 shots/match

4.86 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 37/374.51 shots/match

3.19 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 37/374.27 shots/match

56.9%●Possessionseason · 37/3750.8%

6.57 corners/match●Cornersseason · 37/375.54 corners/match

3.05 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 37/375.35 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3710.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

35%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/3735%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 37/3784%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal82.5

Newcastle United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal77.5

Newcastle United64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal95.8

Newcastle United58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal32.5

Newcastle United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal22.5

Newcastle United12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal65

Newcastle United45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal37 matchesNewcastle United37 matches

1.81 goals/matchGoals scored37/371.84 goals/match

0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed37/371.24 goals/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goals37/37▲1.74 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots37/3713.6 shots/match

4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target37/374.51 shots/match

56.9%●Possession37/3750.8%

6.57 corners/match●Corners37/375.54 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls37/3710.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal19 matchesNewcastle United19 matches

1.84 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.47 goals/match

0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.42 goals/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goals19/191.67 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots19/1912.1 shots/match

5.53 shots/match▲Shots on target19/194.05 shots/match

57.3%●Possession19/1951.2%

7.42 corners/match●Corners19/195.26 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.74 fouls/matchFouls19/199.68 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.19 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples37 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 May 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4