Premier League · 2024Sun, 25 May 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

LWDWL

0–1Full-time recap

Everton

LLDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Everton
Shots	17 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.27 xG/match▲	1.16 xG/match
Possession	65%●	35%
Corners	12 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.26 xG. Everton: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 1.26 xG · Everton 1.24 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle United have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.11 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Newcastle United have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.2%●PossessionNewcastle United · Everton40.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Newcastle United	Everton	Baseline
Possession	51.2%	40.6%	49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Newcastle United

2Draws

1Everton

5 Oct 2024Everton — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0

2 Apr 2024Newcastle United — Everton · Premier League1–1

7 Dec 2023Everton — Newcastle United · Premier League3–0

27 Apr 2023Everton — Newcastle United · Premier League1–4

19 Oct 2022Newcastle United — Everton · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Everton in 1 · 5 too close

1.79 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 38/381.11 goals/match

1.24 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 38/38▲1.16 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 38/381.12 xG/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 38/381.24 xG/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 38/3810.7 shots/match

12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 38/3812.6 shots/match

4.55 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 38/383.79 shots/match

4.32 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 38/384.47 shots/match

51.2%●Possessionseason · 38/3840.6%

5.71 corners/match●Cornersseason · 38/384.05 corners/match

5.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 38/386.03 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 38/3811.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

34%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 38/3832%

82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 38/3861%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United57.5

Everton7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United63.3

Everton17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United57.5

Everton58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United72.5

Everton62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United12.5

Everton50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United62.5

Everton27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United45.6

Everton28.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United38 matchesEverton38 matches

1.79 goals/match▲Goals scored38/381.11 goals/match

1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed38/38▲1.16 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goals38/381.12 xG/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shots38/3810.7 shots/match

4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target38/383.79 shots/match

51.2%●Possession38/3840.6%

5.71 corners/match●Corners38/384.05 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls38/3811.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United19 matchesEverton19 matches

2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored19/190.84 goals/match

1.05 goals/matchGoals allowed19/191.11 goals/match

1.78 xG/match▲Expected goals19/190.99 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots19/1910.2 shots/match

5.05 shots/match▲Shots on target19/193.47 shots/match

51.2%●Possession19/1938%

6.16 corners/match●Corners19/193.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples38 / 38home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 May 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4