PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Chelsea · Premier League

0–1Historical match

Chelsea

WWWLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Chelsea won 0–1.

Shots
106
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
1.21.09
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Chelsea): shots 10–6, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 1.2–1.09, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.53 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.9%PossessionNottingham Forest · Chelsea● 57.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestChelseaBaseline
Possession40.9%57.2%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match ▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Chelsea15.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestChelseaBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match15.7 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match10.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots6 shotsNottingham Forest 10 shots, Chelsea 6 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsNottingham Forest 2 shots, Chelsea 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.2 xG1.09 xGNottingham Forest 1.2 xG, Chelsea 1.09 xG
  • Possession52%48%Nottingham Forest 52%, Chelsea 48%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersNottingham Forest 7 corners, Chelsea 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsNottingham Forest 10 fouls, Chelsea 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 61′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 51′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOla Aina · Nottingham Forest · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMurillo · Nottingham Forest · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 77′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 14′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNikola Milenković · Nottingham Forest · 88′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 88′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRoméo Lavia · Chelsea · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 88′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 23′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 43′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 30′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedLevi Colwill · Chelsea · 50′ · 0.55 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.20 xG. Chelsea: 6 shots, 2 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Levi Colwill · Chelsea · 50′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.20 xG · Chelsea 1.08 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nottingham Forest
3Draws
1Chelsea
Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1
Nottingham Forest — Chelsea · Premier League2–3
Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–1
Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–2
Nottingham Forest — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Chelsea in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest38 matchesChelsea38 matches
1.53 goals/matchGoals scored38/38▲ 1.68 goals/match
1.21 goals/matchGoals allowed38/38▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals38/38▲ 1.81 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots38/38▲ 15.7 shots/match
4.37 shots/matchShots on target38/38▲ 5.74 shots/match
40.9%Possession38/38● 57.2%
4.18 corners/matchCorners38/38● 6.16 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls38/3811.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 May 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestChelsea
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Chelsea
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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