Premier League · 2024Sun, 25 May 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WLDDW

0–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

WWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea
Shots	10 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.2 xG/match▲	1.09 xG/match
Possession	52%●	48%
Corners	7 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.20 xG. Chelsea: 6 shots, 2 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.20 xG · Chelsea 1.08 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.53 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.9%PossessionNottingham Forest · Chelsea●57.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea	Baseline
Possession	40.9%	57.2%	49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Chelsea15.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea	Baseline
Shots	12.2 shots/match	15.7 shots/match	13.3 shots/match
Shots against	14 shots/match	10.5 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

3Draws

1Chelsea

6 Oct 2024Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

11 May 2024Nottingham Forest — Chelsea · Premier League2–3

2 Sept 2023Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–1

13 May 2023Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–2

1 Jan 2023Nottingham Forest — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 8 · 4 too close

1.53 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 38/38▲1.68 goals/match

1.21 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 38/38▲1.13 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 38/38▲1.81 xG/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 38/381.27 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 38/38▲15.7 shots/match

14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 38/38▲10.5 shots/match

4.37 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 38/38▲5.74 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 38/38▲4.13 shots/match

40.9%Possessionseason · 38/38●57.2%

4.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 38/38●6.16 corners/match

6.34 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 38/38▲3.66 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 38/3811.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

34%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 38/3829%

79%Scoring frequencyseason · 38/3882%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Chelsea87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest39.2

Chelsea81.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest43.3

Chelsea79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest87.5

Chelsea77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest22.5

Chelsea67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest32.5

Chelsea77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest30

Chelsea81.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest38 matchesChelsea38 matches

1.53 goals/matchGoals scored38/38▲1.68 goals/match

1.21 goals/matchGoals allowed38/38▲1.13 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals38/38▲1.81 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots38/38▲15.7 shots/match

4.37 shots/matchShots on target38/38▲5.74 shots/match

40.9%Possession38/38●57.2%

4.18 corners/matchCorners38/38●6.16 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls38/3811.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest19 matchesChelsea19 matches

1.37 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.53 goals/match

0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.32 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲1.63 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots19/19▲13.5 shots/match

4.42 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲4.79 shots/match

43.8%Possession19/19●58.8%

4.21 corners/matchCorners19/19●5.84 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.68 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.82 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples38 / 38home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 May 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4