PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

Sporting Braga 1–0 Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Sporting Braga won 1–0.

Shots
2012
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
1.790.53
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Sporting Braga beat Estoril Praia 1–0. Recorded in this match (Sporting Braga – Estoril Praia): shots 20–12, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 1.79–0.53, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Estoril Praia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Estoril Praia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.33 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estoril Praia have a visible away split

weak

Estoril Praia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.33 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.33 shots/match12.5 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Sporting Braga have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.4% ●PossessionSporting Braga · Estoril Praia45%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSporting BragaEstoril PraiaBaseline
Possession61.4%45%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots12 shotsSporting Braga 20 shots, Estoril Praia 12 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotSporting Braga 7 shots, Estoril Praia 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.79 xG0.53 xGSporting Braga 1.79 xG, Estoril Praia 0.53 xG
  • Possession58%42%Sporting Braga 58%, Estoril Praia 42%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersSporting Braga 4 corners, Estoril Praia 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsSporting Braga 9 fouls, Estoril Praia 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards4 cardsSporting Braga 0 cards, Estoril Praia 4 cards
  • Passes623 passes461 passesSporting Braga 623 passes, Estoril Praia 461 passes
  • Pass accuracy86.5%81.8%Sporting Braga 86.5%, Estoril Praia 81.8%
  • Shots inside box13 shots7 shotsSporting Braga 13 shots, Estoril Praia 7 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks6 blocksSporting Braga 5 blocks, Estoril Praia 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save5 savesSporting Braga 1 save, Estoril Praia 5 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesSporting Braga 3 offsides, Estoril Praia 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 34′Joel RoblesYellow card · Estoril Praia
  2. Half-time
  3. 63′FerroSecond yellow · Estoril Praia
  4. 83′Jonas WindGoal · Sporting Braga
  5. 85′João CarvalhoYellow card · Estoril Praia
  6. 88′Pedro CarvalhoYellow card · Estoril Praia
  7. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 10′Estoril Praia · 1 player changePeixinho
  • 46′Sporting Braga · 1 player changeAdrian Bajrami
  • 58′Sporting Braga · 1 player changeJoao Carvalho
  • 59′Sporting Braga · 1 player changeVítor Carvalho
  • 65′Sporting Braga · 1 player changeJean-Baptiste Gorby
  • 66′Estoril Praia · 1 player changeSamuel Amissah
  • 77′Estoril Praia · 3 player changesAndré Lacximicant · Jordan Arnolin · Pedro Carvalho
  • 81′Sporting Braga · 1 player changeJonas Wind

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Sporting Braga
  1. Bernardo FontesG
  2. Victor GómezD
  3. Gustaf LagerbielkeD
  4. Bright Arrey-MbiD
  5. Adrian Leon BarišićD
  6. Gabriel MartínezD
  7. João MoutinhoM
  8. Demir Ege TıknazM
  9. Pau VíctorF
  10. Gabriel SilvaF
  11. Jovan MiloševićF
Estoril Praia
  1. Joel RoblesG
  2. Ricard SánchezD
  3. FerroD
  4. Ismael Sierra ArnalD
  5. Roko JurišićD
  6. Jordan HolsgroveM
  7. João CarvalhoM
  8. Milan RobinM
  9. Nail OmerovićF
  10. Yanis BegraouiF
  11. Fabrício GarciaF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Sporting Braga
2Draws
1Estoril Praia
Sporting Braga — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga1–1
Estoril Praia — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga1–0
Estoril Praia — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga0–2
Sporting Braga — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga2–2
Estoril Praia — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sporting Braga favored in 13 of 13 directional metrics · Estoril Praia in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sporting Braga5 matchesEstoril Praia6 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/60.33 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed5/61.33 goals/match
1.4 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/60.8 xG/match
13.4 shots/match ▲Shots5/612.5 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/64.17 shots/match
61.4% ●Possession5/645%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/6● 4.5 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls5/612 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 14 Sept 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSporting BragaEstoril Praia
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headSporting Braga — Estoril Praia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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