PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

CF Estrela Amadora 2–1 Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

CF Estrela Amadora won 2–1.

Shots
99
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
0.570.61
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

CF Estrela Amadora beat Sporting Braga 2–1. Recorded in this match (CF Estrela Amadora – Sporting Braga): shots 9–9, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 0.57–0.61, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CF Estrela Amadora show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

CF Estrela Amadora's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsCF Estrela Amadora · Sporting Braga11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCF Estrela AmadoraSporting BragaBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match7.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Sporting Braga have recorded the higher season possession share.

45%PossessionCF Estrela Amadora · Sporting Braga● 62.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCF Estrela AmadoraSporting BragaBaseline
Possession45%62.3%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots9 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 9 shots, Sporting Braga 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 5 shots, Sporting Braga 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.57 xG0.61 xGCF Estrela Amadora 0.57 xG, Sporting Braga 0.61 xG
  • Possession37%63%CF Estrela Amadora 37%, Sporting Braga 63%
  • Corners5 corners9 cornersCF Estrela Amadora 5 corners, Sporting Braga 9 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls14 foulsCF Estrela Amadora 12 fouls, Sporting Braga 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardCF Estrela Amadora 2 cards, Sporting Braga 1 card
  • Passes352 passes596 passesCF Estrela Amadora 352 passes, Sporting Braga 596 passes
  • Pass accuracy79.8%86.9%CF Estrela Amadora 79.8%, Sporting Braga 86.9%
  • Shots inside box8 shots6 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 8 shots, Sporting Braga 6 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block2 blocksCF Estrela Amadora 1 block, Sporting Braga 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves3 savesCF Estrela Amadora 3 saves, Sporting Braga 3 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideCF Estrela Amadora 0 offsides, Sporting Braga 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 5′Gabriel MartínezGoal · Sporting Braga
  2. 27′Stefan LekovićYellow card · CF Estrela Amadora
  3. 45′Ianis StoicaGoal · CF Estrela Amadora
  4. Half-time
  5. 56′Ianis StoicaGoal · CF Estrela Amadora
  6. 77′João MoutinhoYellow card · Sporting Braga
  7. 85′Luan PatrickYellow card · CF Estrela Amadora
  8. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 61′Sporting Braga · 3 player changesTomás Marqués · Gabriel Silva · Diogo Travassos
  • 75′CF Estrela Amadora · 1 player changeBénito
  • 76′CF Estrela Amadora · 1 player changeJoan Jordán
  • 76′Sporting Braga · 2 player changesDiego Rodrigues · Jonas Wind
  • 87′CF Estrela Amadora · 1 player changeRené Mitongo
  • 90′CF Estrela Amadora · 1 player changeKevin Höög Jansson

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

CF Estrela Amadora
  1. Léo LinckG
  2. Stefan LekovićD
  3. Max ScholzeD
  4. Luan PatrickD
  5. Rafa SoaresD
  6. Lovro ZvonarekM
  7. Eddy DouéM
  8. Santiago SerraM
  9. Ianis StoicaF
  10. Leandro AntonettiF
  11. Abraham MarcusF
Sporting Braga
  1. Bernardo FontesG
  2. Victor GómezD
  3. Vítor CarvalhoD
  4. Gustaf LagerbielkeD
  5. Sergio BarciaD
  6. Gabriel MartínezD
  7. João MoutinhoM
  8. Demir Ege TıknazM
  9. Fran NavarroF
  10. Pau VíctorF
  11. Mario DorgelesF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0CF Estrela Amadora
3Draws
2Sporting Braga
Sporting Braga — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga2–2
CF Estrela Amadora — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga3–3
CF Estrela Amadora — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga0–1
Sporting Braga — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–1
Sporting Braga — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Estrela Amadora favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Sporting Braga in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Estrela Amadora5 matchesSporting Braga4 matches
2.2 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/41.5 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/4▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals5/4▲ 1.3 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots5/411.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/44.5 shots/match
45%Possession5/4● 62.3%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/4● 3.75 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/415 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 10 Sept 2026, 23:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF Estrela AmadoraSporting Braga
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headCF Estrela Amadora — Sporting Braga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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