PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

CD Nacional 1–3 FC Alverca · Primeira Liga

1–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Alverca won 1–3.

Shots
1310
Shots on target
37
Expected goals
2.21.16
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Alverca beat CD Nacional 3–1. Recorded in this match (CD Nacional – FC Alverca): shots 13–10, shots on target 3–7, expected goals 2.2–1.16, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CD Nacional have a visible home split

weak

CD Nacional's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match10.5 shots/match11 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC Alverca's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC Alverca's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots10 shotsCD Nacional 13 shots, FC Alverca 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots7 shotsCD Nacional 3 shots, FC Alverca 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.2 xG1.16 xGCD Nacional 2.2 xG, FC Alverca 1.16 xG
  • Possession57%43%CD Nacional 57%, FC Alverca 43%
  • Corners2 corners0 cornersCD Nacional 2 corners, FC Alverca 0 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls16 foulsCD Nacional 7 fouls, FC Alverca 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards3 cardsCD Nacional 0 cards, FC Alverca 3 cards
  • Passes474 passes360 passesCD Nacional 474 passes, FC Alverca 360 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.7%80.8%CD Nacional 82.7%, FC Alverca 80.8%
  • Shots inside box10 shots5 shotsCD Nacional 10 shots, FC Alverca 5 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block0 blocksCD Nacional 1 block, FC Alverca 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves3 savesCD Nacional 4 saves, FC Alverca 3 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideCD Nacional 0 offsides, FC Alverca 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 18′Yaya BojangYellow card · FC Alverca
  2. 34′Francisco ChissumbaGoal · FC Alverca
  3. 36′Dawda CamaraGoal · FC Alverca
  4. 42′Dawda CamaraGoal · FC Alverca
  5. Half-time
  6. 48′Dawda CamaraYellow card · FC Alverca
  7. 73′Diogo SpencerYellow card · FC Alverca
  8. 81′Matchoi DjalóGoal · CD Nacional
  9. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′CD Nacional · 2 player changesMatchoi Djaló · Min-kyu Song
  • 54′CD Nacional · 1 player changeChiheb Labidi
  • 65′FC Alverca · 1 player changeMatheus França
  • 66′FC Alverca · 1 player changeAndré Vidigal
  • 69′CD Nacional · 1 player changeAllen Obando
  • 72′FC Alverca · 1 player changeVivaldo
  • 78′CD Nacional · 1 player changeFernando Nava
  • 79′FC Alverca · 2 player changesRayan Lucas · Cédric Nuozzi

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

CD Nacional
  1. Renato MarinG
  2. Matheus DiasD
  3. Williams KokoloD
  4. Francisco GonçalvesD
  5. Ze VitorD
  6. Wesley GasolinaD
  7. Markus JensenM
  8. Miguel BaezaM
  9. Daniel JúniorF
  10. Stavros GavrielF
  11. Pablo Messias CardozoF
FC Alverca
  1. Matheus MendesG
  2. Yaya BojangD
  3. Isaac JamesD
  4. Diogo SpencerD
  5. Sergi GómezD
  6. Francisco ChissumbaD
  7. Davy GuiM
  8. Ian LuccasM
  9. ChiquinhoF
  10. Dawda CamaraF
  11. FigueiredoF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1CD Nacional
0Draws
1FC Alverca
CD Nacional — FC Alverca · Primeira Liga1–0
FC Alverca — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CD Nacional favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · FC Alverca in 6 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CD Nacional6 matchesFC Alverca6 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
1.14 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.08 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots6/610 shots/match
2.83 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 3.67 shots/match
50.2% ●Possession6/643%
3.33 corners/matchCorners6/6● 4.5 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls6/613 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCD NacionalFC Alverca
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headCD Nacional — FC Alverca
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required