PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

Casa Pia 1–4 FC Porto · Primeira Liga

1–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Porto won 1–4.

Shots
1517
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.592.54
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Porto beat Casa Pia 4–1. Recorded in this match (Casa Pia – FC Porto): shots 15–17, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.59–2.54, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Porto show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Porto's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsCasa Pia · FC Porto15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCasa PiaFC PortoBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match15.3 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots against16 shots/match10.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

FC Porto have a visible away split

weak

FC Porto's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match15.3 shots/match11 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Casa Pia's recent record differs from the season

weak

Casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.17 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots17 shotsCasa Pia 15 shots, FC Porto 17 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsCasa Pia 5 shots, FC Porto 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.59 xG2.54 xGCasa Pia 1.59 xG, FC Porto 2.54 xG
  • Possession37%63%Casa Pia 37%, FC Porto 63%
  • Corners5 corners10 cornersCasa Pia 5 corners, FC Porto 10 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls10 foulsCasa Pia 13 fouls, FC Porto 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardCasa Pia 4 cards, FC Porto 1 card
  • Passes242 passes402 passesCasa Pia 242 passes, FC Porto 402 passes
  • Pass accuracy67.4%81.6%Casa Pia 67.4%, FC Porto 81.6%
  • Shots inside box6 shots12 shotsCasa Pia 6 shots, FC Porto 12 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks7 blocksCasa Pia 3 blocks, FC Porto 7 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves4 savesCasa Pia 0 saves, FC Porto 4 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideCasa Pia 0 offsides, FC Porto 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 43′Henrique AraújoPenalty goal · Casa Pia
  2. 45′Jakub KiwiorYellow card · FC Porto
  3. 45′André SilvaGoal · FC Porto
  4. Half-time
  5. 53′Domingos Jose Gabriel BandeiraYellow card · Casa Pia
  6. 54′André GeraldesYellow card · Casa Pia
  7. 60′Jakub KiwiorGoal · FC Porto
  8. 66′Borja SainzGoal · FC Porto
  9. 87′David SousaYellow card · Casa Pia
  10. 90′Ivan MandićYellow card · Casa Pia
  11. 90′Santiago GiménezPenalty goal · FC Porto
  12. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 62′FC Porto · 2 player changesSantiago Giménez · Borja Sainz
  • 68′Casa Pia · 1 player changeEvans Fabrice Maurin
  • 70′FC Porto · 1 player changeAlan Varela
  • 74′Casa Pia · 2 player changesCassiano · JP
  • 80′FC Porto · 2 player changesMartim Fernandes · Seko Fofana
  • 88′Casa Pia · 1 player changeAymen Zouin

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Casa Pia
  1. Ivan MandićG
  2. Domingos Jose Gabriel BandeiraD
  3. André GeraldesD
  4. David SousaD
  5. Pedro RosasD
  6. Selvi ClúaM
  7. João RêgoM
  8. Lawrence OforiM
  9. Henrique AraújoF
  10. Mohamed Salah El BoukammiriF
  11. Benjamin PauwelsF
FC Porto
  1. Diogo CostaG
  2. Jakub KiwiorD
  3. Jan BednarekD
  4. Alberto CostaD
  5. Francisco MouraD
  6. Gabri VeigaM
  7. Pablo RosarioM
  8. Hwang In-beomM
  9. William GomesF
  10. PepêF
  11. André SilvaF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Casa Pia
0Draws
4FC Porto
Casa Pia — FC Porto · Primeira Liga2–1
FC Porto — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga4–0
Casa Pia — FC Porto · Primeira Liga0–1
FC Porto — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga2–0
Casa Pia — FC Porto · Primeira Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Casa Pia favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · FC Porto in 13

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Casa Pia6 matchesFC Porto6 matches
0.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 2.5 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 0.33 goals/match
0.68 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 2.41 xG/match
10.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 15.3 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 6.17 shots/match
44.3%Possession6/6● 55.8%
4.17 corners/matchCorners6/6● 7.5 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls6/613.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCasa PiaFC Porto
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headCasa Pia — FC Porto
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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