PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Bolton Wanderers 0–1 Lincoln City · Championship

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Lincoln City won 0–1.

Shots
218
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.561.07
Possession
69%31%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lincoln City beat Bolton Wanderers 1–0. Recorded in this match (Bolton Wanderers – Lincoln City): shots 21–8, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.56–1.07, possession 69%–31%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Bolton Wanderers have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.3% ●PossessionBolton Wanderers · Lincoln City31%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 25.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBolton WanderersLincoln CityBaseline
Possession56.3%31%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Lincoln City show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lincoln City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsBolton Wanderers · Lincoln City11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBolton WanderersLincoln CityBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match11 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match18.7 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots8 shotsBolton Wanderers 21 shots, Lincoln City 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsBolton Wanderers 6 shots, Lincoln City 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.56 xG1.07 xGBolton Wanderers 1.56 xG, Lincoln City 1.07 xG
  • Possession69%31%Bolton Wanderers 69%, Lincoln City 31%
  • Corners14 corners2 cornersBolton Wanderers 14 corners, Lincoln City 2 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls15 foulsBolton Wanderers 6 fouls, Lincoln City 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards3 cardsBolton Wanderers 0 cards, Lincoln City 3 cards
  • Passes542 passes250 passesBolton Wanderers 542 passes, Lincoln City 250 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.6%72%Bolton Wanderers 85.6%, Lincoln City 72%
  • Shots inside box13 shots5 shotsBolton Wanderers 13 shots, Lincoln City 5 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks3 blocksBolton Wanderers 7 blocks, Lincoln City 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save7 savesBolton Wanderers 1 save, Lincoln City 7 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides4 offsidesBolton Wanderers 0 offsides, Lincoln City 4 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 30′Ben HouseYellow card · Lincoln City
  2. Half-time
  3. 66′Ben HouseGoal · Lincoln City
  4. 79′Ivan VarfolomeevYellow card · Lincoln City
  5. 90′Conor McGrandlesYellow card · Lincoln City
  6. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 61′Bolton Wanderers · 2 player changesKyliane Dong · Gaizka Larrazabal
  • 65′Lincoln City · 1 player changeRobert Street
  • 71′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeJayden Nelson
  • 72′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeRyan Hardie
  • 80′Lincoln City · 1 player changeTanto Olaofe
  • 80′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeDavid Watson
  • 85′Lincoln City · 2 player changesTom Bayliss · Joshua Honohan

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Bolton Wanderers
2Draws
1Lincoln City
Lincoln City — Bolton Wanderers · League One1–1
Bolton Wanderers — Lincoln City · League One1–1
Lincoln City — Bolton Wanderers · League One4–2
Bolton Wanderers — Lincoln City · League One3–0
Lincoln City — Bolton Wanderers · League One0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bolton Wanderers favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Lincoln City in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bolton Wanderers3 matchesLincoln City3 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲ 1 goal/match
0.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed3/31.67 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲ 1.33 xG/match
12.7 shots/match ▲Shots3/311 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target3/33 shots/match
56.3% ●Possession3/331%
7 corners/match ●Corners3/35 corners/match
8.67 fouls/matchFouls3/314.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBolton WanderersLincoln City
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headBolton Wanderers — Lincoln City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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