PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Southampton 5–1 Millwall · Championship

5–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Southampton won 5–1.

Shots
2114
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
3.211.09
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Southampton beat Millwall 5–1. Recorded in this match (Southampton – Millwall): shots 21–14, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 3.21–1.09, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.67 corners/matchCornersSouthampton · Millwall● 8.33 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricSouthamptonMillwallBaseline
Corners6.67 corners/match8.33 corners/match5.33 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Millwall show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Millwall's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.7 shots/match ▲ShotsSouthampton · Millwall19 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSouthamptonMillwallBaseline
Shots18.7 shots/match19 shots/match14.3 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots14 shotsSouthampton 21 shots, Millwall 14 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsSouthampton 7 shots, Millwall 5 shots
  • Expected goals3.21 xG1.09 xGSouthampton 3.21 xG, Millwall 1.09 xG
  • Possession52%48%Southampton 52%, Millwall 48%
  • Corners8 corners11 cornersSouthampton 8 corners, Millwall 11 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls10 foulsSouthampton 6 fouls, Millwall 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardSouthampton 2 cards, Millwall 1 card
  • Passes418 passes377 passesSouthampton 418 passes, Millwall 377 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.8%80.4%Southampton 87.8%, Millwall 80.4%
  • Shots inside box16 shots11 shotsSouthampton 16 shots, Millwall 11 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks4 blocksSouthampton 7 blocks, Millwall 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves2 savesSouthampton 4 saves, Millwall 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesSouthampton 1 offside, Millwall 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 4′Ryan ManningYellow card · Southampton
  2. 10′Mark SykesYellow card · Millwall
  3. 15′Mark SykesGoal · Millwall
  4. 25′Cyle LarinGoal · Southampton
  5. 39′Finn AzazGoal · Southampton
  6. Half-time
  7. 55′Leo ScienzaPenalty goal · Southampton
  8. 62′Cyle LarinGoal · Southampton
  9. 86′Tom FellowsGoal · Southampton
  10. 87′Tom FellowsYellow card · Southampton
  11. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Southampton · 1 player changeJames Ward-Prowse
  • 61′Millwall · 1 player changeLuke Cundle
  • 70′Southampton · 1 player changeDivin Mubama
  • 71′Millwall · 2 player changesDaniel Kelly · Elkan Baggott
  • 71′Southampton · 1 player changeTom Fellows
  • 79′Millwall · 1 player changeZak Lovelace
  • 80′Millwall · 1 player changeLyndon Dykes
  • 81′Southampton · 1 player changeLewis Dobbin
  • 87′Southampton · 1 player changeJack Stephens

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Southampton
1Draws
2Millwall
Southampton — Millwall · Championship0–0
Millwall — Southampton · Championship3–2
Southampton — Millwall · Championship1–2
Millwall — Southampton · Championship0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Southampton favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Millwall in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Southampton3 matchesMillwall3 matches
3 goals/match ▲Goals scored3/32 goals/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed3/31.67 goals/match
2.49 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/32.23 xG/match
18.7 shots/matchShots3/319 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target3/35 shots/match
58.7% ●Possession3/355.3%
6.67 corners/matchCorners3/3● 8.33 corners/match
8.33 fouls/matchFouls3/312 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSouthamptonMillwall
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headSouthampton — Millwall
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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