PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea · Premier League

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 2–1.

Shots
1613
Shots on target
95
Expected goals
2.110.35
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Chelsea 2–1. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Chelsea): shots 16–13, shots on target 9–5, expected goals 2.11–0.35, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.3% ●PossessionArsenal · Chelsea36.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricArsenalChelseaBaseline
Possession60.3%36.7%46.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · Chelsea16 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalChelseaBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match16 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against8 shots/match15 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots13 shotsArsenal 16 shots, Chelsea 13 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots5 shotsArsenal 9 shots, Chelsea 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.11 xG0.35 xGArsenal 2.11 xG, Chelsea 0.35 xG
  • Possession55%45%Arsenal 55%, Chelsea 45%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersArsenal 5 corners, Chelsea 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsArsenal 13 fouls, Chelsea 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsArsenal 2 cards, Chelsea 4 cards
  • Passes457 passes379 passesArsenal 457 passes, Chelsea 379 passes
  • Pass accuracy84.3%81.5%Arsenal 84.3%, Chelsea 81.5%
  • Shots inside box13 shots5 shotsArsenal 13 shots, Chelsea 5 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks2 blocksArsenal 6 blocks, Chelsea 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves8 savesArsenal 4 saves, Chelsea 8 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesArsenal 3 offsides, Chelsea 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 2′Morgan RogersGoal · Chelsea
  2. 12′Riccardo CalafioriGoal · Arsenal
  3. 14′João PedroYellow card · Chelsea
  4. 25′Kai HavertzGoal · Arsenal
  5. 45′Cole PalmerYellow card · Chelsea
  6. Half-time
  7. 50′Martin ØdegaardGoal · Arsenal
  8. 58′Maxence LacroixYellow card · Chelsea
  9. 58′Christos TzolisYellow card · Arsenal
  10. 83′Morgan RogersYellow card · Chelsea
  11. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 60′Chelsea · 2 player changesMalo Gusto · Pep Chavarría
  • 67′Arsenal · 2 player changesMartín Zubimendi · Piero Hincapié
  • 77′Arsenal · 1 player changeMikel Merino
  • 78′Arsenal · 1 player changeViktor Gyökeres
  • 81′Chelsea · 1 player changeEstêvão
  • 87′Chelsea · 1 player changeDanny Welbeck
  • 90′Arsenal · 1 player changeNoni Madueke

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Arsenal4-2-3-1
  1. David RayaG
  2. Ben WhiteD
  3. Gabriel MagalhãesD
  4. Ezri KonsaD
  5. Riccardo CalafioriD
  6. Martin ØdegaardM
  7. Declan RiceM
  8. Myles Lewis-SkellyM
  9. Bukayo SakaF
  10. Christos TzolisF
  11. Kai HavertzF
Chelsea3-4-2-1
  1. Emiliano MartínezG
  2. Wesley FofanaD
  3. Levi ColwillD
  4. Pedro NetoD
  5. Jorrel HatoD
  6. Maxence LacroixD
  7. Malo GustoM
  8. Roméo LaviaM
  9. Cole PalmerF
  10. Morgan RogersF
  11. João PedroF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Arsenal
2Draws
0Chelsea
Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League2–1
Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League1–1
Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League1–0
Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League1–1
Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal3 matchesChelsea3 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲ 2.67 goals/match
0.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed3/32.33 goals/match
1.65 xG/matchExpected goals3/31.67 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots3/3▲ 16 shots/match
5.67 shots/matchShots on target3/35.67 shots/match
60.3% ●Possession3/336.7%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners3/33.67 corners/match
9.67 fouls/matchFouls3/39.67 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headArsenal — Chelsea
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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