UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 9 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeGewiss StadiumFull-time recap

Atalanta

LWDWW

2–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

LWWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atalanta	Chelsea
Shots	14 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.72 xG/match▲	1.37 xG/match
Possession	49%	51%
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Atalanta: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.72 xG. Chelsea: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.72 xG · Chelsea 1.32 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Atalanta have a visible home split

weak

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	18.7 shots/match	15.3 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.33 goals/match	1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 6 · 4 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲2.17 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.33 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.64 xG/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/61.35 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/613.3 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲9.17 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲5.17 shots/match

5.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲3 shots/match

47.8%Possessionseason · 6/655.7%

4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/65.5 corners/match

4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲2.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/614.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/633%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta34.5

Chelsea77.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta48.2

Chelsea59.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta58.7

Chelsea80.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta77.4

Chelsea27.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta20.2

Chelsea82.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta34.5

Chelsea67.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta39.9

Chelsea62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match

0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

2.27 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.82 xG/match

17 shots/match▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match

50.8%Possession5/558%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/515.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2.17 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.64 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots6/613.3 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲5.17 shots/match

47.8%Possession6/655.7%

4.17 corners/matchCorners6/65.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.5 fouls/matchFouls6/614.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2.17 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.64 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots6/613.3 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲5.17 shots/match

47.8%Possession6/655.7%

4.17 corners/matchCorners6/65.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.5 fouls/matchFouls6/614.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/31.33 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.33 goals/match

2.42 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.12 xG/match

18.7 shots/match▲Shots3/311.7 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target3/34 shots/match

51%Possession3/352%

5 corners/matchCorners3/35 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.33 fouls/matchFouls3/313.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 10 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4