PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Marcantonio BentegodiFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHellas VeronaAtalanta
Shots12 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession36%64%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.79 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible away split

moderate

Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match14.8 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Atalanta have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.4%▲PossessionHellas Verona · Atalanta56.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHellas VeronaAtalantaBaseline
Possession39.4%56.9%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hellas Verona favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 7 · 6 too close

0.79 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲1.21 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲14.8 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲10.9 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/144.43 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/144.21 shots/match
39.4%Possessionseason · 14/1456.9%
3.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.64 corners/match
4.21 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲3.79 corners/match
2.64 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.57 cards/match
17.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1410.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1421%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲79%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hellas Verona7.5
Atalanta72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hellas Verona48.3
Atalanta69.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hellas Verona37.5
Atalanta59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hellas Verona97.5
Atalanta72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona95
Atalanta10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona37.5
Atalanta87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hellas Verona65
Atalanta61.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
40.6%Possession5/559%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
18.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.7 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104 shots/match
41%Possession10/1055.8%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
17.5 fouls/matchFouls10/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
0.79 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.21 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots14/14▲14.8 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144.43 shots/match
39.4%Possession14/1456.9%
3.86 corners/matchCorners14/145.64 corners/match
2.64 cards/matchCards14/141.57 cards/match
17.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/71.14 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots7/711.9 shots/match
5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.43 shots/match
41.6%Possession7/756%
5 corners/matchCorners7/74.14 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
17.1 fouls/matchFouls7/79.86 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.11 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHellas VeronaAtalanta
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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