PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 20 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de la CeramicaFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealAFC Ajax
Shots19 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals1.35 xG/match▲0.91 xG/match
Possession39%61%
Corners7 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Anton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTajon Buchanan · Villarreal · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Villarreal · 25′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJorthy Mokio · AFC Ajax · 39′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTani Oluwaseyi · Villarreal · 49′ · 0.03 xG · goalTajon Buchanan · Villarreal · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTani Oluwaseyi · Villarreal · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 61′ · 0.04 xG · goalNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 5′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRenato Veiga · Villarreal · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKian Fitz-Jim · AFC Ajax · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 62′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDavy Klaassen · AFC Ajax · 65′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJorthy Mokio · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 5′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 7′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAlberto Moleiro · Villarreal · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDavy Klaassen · AFC Ajax · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRenato Veiga · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 66′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedOwen Wijndal · AFC Ajax · 34′ · 0.15 xG · on targetOliver Valaker Edvardsen · AFC Ajax · 89′ · 0.15 xG · goalNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 68′ · 0.17 xG · on targetRenato Veiga · Villarreal · 7′ · 0.18 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Villarreal: 19 shots, 8 on target, 1.36 xG. AFC Ajax: 15 shots, 5 on target, 0.89 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Tani Oluwaseyi · Villarreal · 49′Oscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 61′Oliver Valaker Edvardsen · AFC Ajax · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 1.36 xG · AFC Ajax 0.89 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AFC Ajax's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

AFC Ajax's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AFC Ajax's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsVillarreal · AFC Ajax10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealAFC AjaxBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match15.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

AFC Ajax have a visible away split

weak

AFC Ajax's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 1 · 5 too close

0.71 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1 goals/match
2.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72.71 goals/match
1.35 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/71.07 xG/match
1.49 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/71.74 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/710.3 shots/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/715.1 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/73.29 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/76.43 shots/match
43.4%Possessionseason · 7/752.3%
3.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/74.86 corners/match
3.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/74.71 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%
43%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/743%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal13.1
AFC Ajax65.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal32.1
AFC Ajax13.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal49.7
AFC Ajax15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal86.9
AFC Ajax6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal67.9
AFC Ajax58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal17.9
AFC Ajax60.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal43.2
AFC Ajax34.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
2.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.08 xG/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
43.4%Possession5/551.6%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1 goals/match
2.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.71 goals/match
1.35 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.07 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shots7/710.3 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
43.4%Possession7/752.3%
3.71 corners/matchCorners7/74.86 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/712 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1 goals/match
2.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.71 goals/match
1.35 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.07 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shots7/710.3 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
43.4%Possession7/752.3%
3.71 corners/matchCorners7/74.86 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/712 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match
2.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/43 goals/match
1.6 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.09 xG/match
16.5 shots/match▲Shots4/412.5 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44 shots/match
42.5%Possession4/450%
4.5 corners/matchCorners4/44.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

41.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/141.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealAFC Ajax
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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