PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Estadio de la Ceramica

Villarreal 1–2 AFC Ajax · UEFA Champions League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AFC Ajax won 1–2.

Shots
1915
Shots on target
85
Expected goals
1.350.91
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

AFC Ajax beat Villarreal 2–1. Recorded in this match (Villarreal – AFC Ajax): shots 19–15, shots on target 8–5, expected goals 1.35–0.91, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AFC Ajax's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AFC Ajax's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match ▲ShotsVillarreal · AFC Ajax10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealAFC AjaxBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match15.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

AFC Ajax have a visible away split

weak

AFC Ajax's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots15 shotsVillarreal 19 shots, AFC Ajax 15 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots5 shotsVillarreal 8 shots, AFC Ajax 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.35 xG0.91 xGVillarreal 1.35 xG, AFC Ajax 0.91 xG
  • Possession39%61%Villarreal 39%, AFC Ajax 61%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersVillarreal 7 corners, AFC Ajax 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsVillarreal 11 fouls, AFC Ajax 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Anton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTajon Buchanan · Villarreal · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Villarreal · 25′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJorthy Mokio · AFC Ajax · 39′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTani Oluwaseyi · Villarreal · 49′ · 0.03 xG · goalTajon Buchanan · Villarreal · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTani Oluwaseyi · Villarreal · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 61′ · 0.04 xG · goalNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 5′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRenato Veiga · Villarreal · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKian Fitz-Jim · AFC Ajax · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 62′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDavy Klaassen · AFC Ajax · 65′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJorthy Mokio · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 5′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 7′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAlberto Moleiro · Villarreal · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDavy Klaassen · AFC Ajax · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRenato Veiga · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 66′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedOwen Wijndal · AFC Ajax · 34′ · 0.15 xG · on targetOliver Valaker Edvardsen · AFC Ajax · 89′ · 0.15 xG · goalNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 68′ · 0.17 xG · on targetRenato Veiga · Villarreal · 7′ · 0.18 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Villarreal: 19 shots, 8 on target, 1.36 xG. AFC Ajax: 15 shots, 5 on target, 0.89 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Tani Oluwaseyi · Villarreal · 49′Oscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 61′Oliver Valaker Edvardsen · AFC Ajax · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 1.36 xG · AFC Ajax 0.89 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Villarreal favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Villarreal7 matchesAFC Ajax7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 1 goal/match
2.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/72.71 goals/match
1.35 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.07 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots7/710.3 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
43.4%Possession7/7● 52.3%
3.71 corners/matchCorners7/7● 4.86 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/712 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVillarrealAFC Ajax
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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