UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 28 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeSan MamésFull-time recap

Athletic Club

WLDDW

2–3Full-time recap

Sporting

WDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Athletic Club	Sporting
Shots	9 shots/match	9 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.59 xG/match	1.49 xG/match▲
Possession	35%	65%
Corners	6 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	22 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Athletic Club: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.58 xG. Sporting: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Athletic Club 0.58 xG · Sporting 1.46 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sporting's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Sporting's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Sporting have a visible away split

weak

Sporting's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

6.25 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	6.25 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Sporting's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sporting's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.2 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sporting show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Sporting's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAthletic Club · Sporting11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Athletic Club	Sporting	Baseline
Shots	10.5 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	13.4 shots/match
Shots against	11.3 shots/match	14.6 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Athletic Club favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Sporting in 8 · 3 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲2.13 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.38 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.41 xG/match

1.29 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.06 xG/match

10.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲11.1 shots/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/814.6 shots/match

3.13 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲4.88 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲4.63 shots/match

41%Possessionseason · 8/848.6%

4 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/83.5 corners/match

3.88 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/85.25 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

17.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/89.88 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%

50%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Athletic Club10.7

Sporting36.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Athletic Club16.3

Sporting51.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Athletic Club45.9

Sporting46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Athletic Club41.7

Sporting20.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club98.8

Sporting20.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club25

Sporting17.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Athletic Club36.9

Sporting28.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals5/50.91 xG/match

9.2 shots/matchShots5/59.2 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match

36.4%Possession5/544.6%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

18.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches

1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.13 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.38 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.41 xG/match

10.5 shots/matchShots8/8▲11.1 shots/match

3.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.88 shots/match

41%Possession8/848.6%

4 corners/matchCorners8/83.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

17.6 fouls/matchFouls8/89.88 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches

1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.13 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.38 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.41 xG/match

10.5 shots/matchShots8/8▲11.1 shots/match

3.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.88 shots/match

41%Possession8/848.6%

4 corners/matchCorners8/83.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

17.6 fouls/matchFouls8/89.88 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.5 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.83 xG/match

12.5 shots/match▲Shots4/46.25 shots/match

2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲2.75 shots/match

40.3%Possession4/450.5%

5 corners/matchCorners4/43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

18.8 fouls/matchFouls4/49 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Sporting have a visible away split

Sporting's recent record differs from the season

Sporting show a distinct attacking-volume record

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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