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Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio José Alvalade

Sporting 2–1 CD Nacional · Primeira Liga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Sporting won 2–1.

Shots
164
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
1.741.32
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Sporting CP beat Nacional 2–1. Recorded in this match (Sporting CP – Nacional): shots 16–4, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 1.74–1.32, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nacional's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nacional's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sporting CP show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Sporting CP's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19 shots/match ▲ShotsSporting CP · Nacional12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSporting CPNacionalBaseline
Shots19 shots/match12 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against8.33 shots/match15.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Sporting CP have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.4% ●PossessionSporting CP · Nacional44.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSporting CPNacionalBaseline
Possession62.4%44.9%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots4 shotsSporting 16 shots, CD Nacional 4 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsSporting 7 shots, CD Nacional 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.74 xG1.32 xGSporting 1.74 xG, CD Nacional 1.32 xG
  • Possession62%38%Sporting 62%, CD Nacional 38%
  • Corners11 corners0 cornersSporting 11 corners, CD Nacional 0 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls15 foulsSporting 12 fouls, CD Nacional 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards3 cardsSporting 0 cards, CD Nacional 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Luis Guilherme · Sporting CP · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeny Catamo · Sporting CP · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximiliano Araújo · Sporting CP · 36′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEduardo Quaresma · Sporting CP · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 40′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMaximiliano Araújo · Sporting CP · 57′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJosé Gomes · Nacional · 72′ · 0.05 xG · on targetOusmane Diomande · Sporting CP · 20′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMaximiliano Araújo · Sporting CP · 48′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Veron · Nacional · 76′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLuis Guilherme · Sporting CP · 50′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Trincão · Sporting CP · 72′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 68′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedPedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 72′ · 0.16 xG · goalFrancisco Trincão · Sporting CP · 84′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting CP · 24′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting CP · 90′ · 0.24 xG · goalGabriel Veron · Nacional · 12′ · 0.34 xG · on targetLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting CP · 45′ · 0.37 xG · on targetAlan Núñez · Nacional · 76′ · 0.95 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Sporting CP: 16 shots, 7 on target, 1.78 xG. Nacional: 4 shots, 4 on target, 1.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Pedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 72′Luis Javier Suárez · Sporting CP · 90′Alan Núñez · Nacional · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Sporting CP 1.78 xG · Nacional 1.41 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Sporting
0Draws
0CD Nacional
CD Nacional — Sporting · Primeira Liga1–4
Sporting — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga2–0
CD Nacional — Sporting · Primeira Liga1–6

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sporting favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · CD Nacional in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sporting21 matchesCD Nacional21 matches
2.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored21/211.38 goals/match
0.52 goals/match ▲Goals allowed21/211.52 goals/match
2.24 xG/match ▲Expected goals20/201.31 xG/match
19 shots/match ▲Shots21/2112 shots/match
7.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/214.1 shots/match
62.4% ●Possession21/2144.9%
7.1 corners/match ●Corners21/213.76 corners/match
2.35 cards/matchCards20/203.1 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls21/2114.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSportingCD Nacional
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headSporting — CD Nacional
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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