PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio da Madeira

CD Nacional 0–0 Casa Pia · Primeira Liga

0–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

CD Nacional and Casa Pia drew 0–0.

Shots
219
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
0.980.64
Possession
69%31%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nacional and Casa Pia drew 0–0. Recorded in this match (Nacional – Casa Pia): shots 21–9, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 0.98–0.64, possession 69%–31%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nacional's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nacional's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.32 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots9 shotsCD Nacional 21 shots, Casa Pia 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsCD Nacional 4 shots, Casa Pia 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.98 xG0.64 xGCD Nacional 0.98 xG, Casa Pia 0.64 xG
  • Possession69%31%CD Nacional 69%, Casa Pia 31%
  • Corners12 corners1 cornerCD Nacional 12 corners, Casa Pia 1 corner
  • Fouls15 fouls11 foulsCD Nacional 15 fouls, Casa Pia 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsCD Nacional 2 cards, Casa Pia 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Miguel Baeza · Nacional · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCassiano · Casa Pia · 1′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 12′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLawrence Ofori · Casa Pia · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 42′ · 0.02 xG · on targetZe Vitor · Nacional · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Veron · Nacional · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLiziero · Nacional · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Veron · Nacional · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 75′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLiziero · Nacional · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbdu Conté · Casa Pia · 29′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlan Núñez · Nacional · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLiziero · Nacional · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 44′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 26′ · 0.06 xG · on targetCassiano · Casa Pia · 38′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGabriel Veron · Nacional · 74′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCassiano · Casa Pia · 29′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJosé Gomes · Nacional · 43′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Dias · Nacional · 53′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLéo Santos · Nacional · 21′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedZe Vitor · Nacional · 80′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedCassiano · Casa Pia · 76′ · 0.16 xG · on targetCassiano · Casa Pia · 27′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nacional: 21 shots, 4 on target, 0.97 xG. Casa Pia: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.63 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nacional 0.97 xG · Casa Pia 0.63 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2CD Nacional
0Draws
1Casa Pia
Casa Pia — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga0–2
CD Nacional — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga3–1
Casa Pia — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CD Nacional favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Casa Pia in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CD Nacional22 matchesCasa Pia23 matches
1.32 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/231.17 goals/match
1.45 goals/match ▲Goals allowed22/231.83 goals/match
1.3 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/210.87 xG/match
12.4 shots/match ▲Shots22/238.57 shots/match
4.09 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/233.04 shots/match
46% ●Possession22/2344.3%
4.14 corners/match ●Corners22/233.52 corners/match
3.05 cards/matchCards21/213.19 cards/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls22/2315.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCD NacionalCasa Pia
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCD Nacional — Casa Pia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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