PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Casa Pia 2–1 FC Porto · Primeira Liga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Casa Pia won 2–1.

Shots
615
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
0.972.02
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Casa Pia beat FC Porto 2–1. Recorded in this match (Casa Pia – FC Porto): shots 6–15, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 0.97–2.02, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Casa Pia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.23 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.23 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Casa Pia show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Casa Pia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.55 shots/match ▲ShotsCasa Pia · FC Porto14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCasa PiaFC PortoBaseline
Shots8.55 shots/match14.6 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against14.4 shots/match9.76 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Porto have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.9%PossessionCasa Pia · FC Porto● 57.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCasa PiaFC PortoBaseline
Possession44.9%57.6%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots15 shotsCasa Pia 6 shots, FC Porto 15 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsCasa Pia 3 shots, FC Porto 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.97 xG2.02 xGCasa Pia 0.97 xG, FC Porto 2.02 xG
  • Possession32%68%Casa Pia 32%, FC Porto 68%
  • Corners0 corners10 cornersCasa Pia 0 corners, FC Porto 10 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls14 foulsCasa Pia 14 fouls, FC Porto 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsCasa Pia 3 cards, FC Porto 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlan Varela · FC Porto · 36′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedClaudio Mendes · Casa Pia · 85′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBorja Sainz · FC Porto · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRafael Brito · Casa Pia · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBorja Sainz · FC Porto · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Rosario · FC Porto · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Rosario · FC Porto · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoão Goulart · Casa Pia · 45′ · 0.06 xG · goalSamu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 64′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Moura · FC Porto · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThiago Silva · FC Porto · 55′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDeniz Gül · FC Porto · 74′ · 0.07 xG · on targetGabri Veiga · FC Porto · 87′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedBorja Sainz · FC Porto · 30′ · 0.16 xG · on targetGabri Veiga · FC Porto · 63′ · 0.17 xG · on targetClaudio Mendes · Casa Pia · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetPablo Rosario · FC Porto · 46′ · 0.25 xG · goalGabri Veiga · FC Porto · 35′ · 0.31 xG · on targetPablo Rosario · FC Porto · 75′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blockedGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 12′ · 0.64 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Casa Pia: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.94 xG. FC Porto: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.96 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 12′João Goulart · Casa Pia · 45′Pablo Rosario · FC Porto · 46′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Casa Pia 0.94 xG · FC Porto 1.96 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Casa Pia
0Draws
5FC Porto
FC Porto — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga4–0
Casa Pia — FC Porto · Primeira Liga0–1
FC Porto — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga2–0
Casa Pia — FC Porto · Primeira Liga1–2
FC Porto — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Casa Pia favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Porto in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Casa Pia22 matchesFC Porto21 matches
1.23 goals/matchGoals scored22/21▲ 2.05 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed22/21▲ 0.29 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲ 1.87 xG/match
8.55 shots/matchShots22/21▲ 14.6 shots/match
3.05 shots/matchShots on target22/21▲ 5.48 shots/match
44.9%Possession22/21● 57.6%
3.64 corners/matchCorners22/21● 5.62 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards20/202.4 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls22/2113.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 3 Feb 2026, 00:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCasa PiaFC Porto
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCasa Pia — FC Porto
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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