UEFA Champions League · 2025Sat, 30 May 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeFerenc Puskás StadiumFull-time recap

Paris Saint Germain

WWWWD

1–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Arsenal
Shots	21 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.72 xG/match▲	0.51 xG/match
Possession	75%	25%
Corners	11 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 26 shots, 9 on target, 5.90 xG. Arsenal: 12 shots, 4 on target, 4.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 5.90 xG · Arsenal 4.52 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	2 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible away split

moderate

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.8 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.7 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Arsenal14.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Arsenal	Baseline
Shots	18.7 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	10.4 shots/match	11.7 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 4 · 5 too close

2.65 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/152 goals/match

1.35 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/15▲0.47 goals/match

1.9 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/151.93 xG/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 17/15▲0.9 xG/match

18.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1514.3 shots/match

10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1511.7 shots/match

6.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/155.8 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/15▲2.87 shots/match

63.6%Possessionseason · 17/1551.1%

5.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/155.2 corners/match

3.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/153.73 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.18 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1511.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/15▲60%

94%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1593%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain98.8

Arsenal63.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain93

Arsenal73.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain77.1

Arsenal88.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain67.9

Arsenal53.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain10.7

Arsenal51.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain82.1

Arsenal63.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain69

Arsenal64.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match

1.62 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.11 xG/match

15.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match

5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52 shots/match

54.6%Possession5/546.4%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match

1.73 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.81 xG/match

17.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.3 shots/match

6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.2 shots/match

60.5%Possession10/1049.5%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 15 matches

2.65 goals/match▲Goals scored17/152 goals/match

1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed17/15▲0.47 goals/match

1.9 xG/matchExpected goals17/151.93 xG/match

18.7 shots/match▲Shots17/1514.3 shots/match

6.94 shots/match▲Shots on target17/155.8 shots/match

63.6%Possession17/1551.1%

5.94 corners/matchCorners17/155.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.18 fouls/matchFouls17/1511.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches

2.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/81.88 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲0.5 goals/match

2.09 xG/match▲Expected goals9/81.64 xG/match

18.7 shots/match▲Shots9/811.8 shots/match

7.11 shots/match▲Shots on target9/85 shots/match

66.1%Possession9/850.4%

5.67 corners/matchCorners9/84 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.44 fouls/matchFouls9/811.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

23.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/124.9 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples17 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 May 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4