Eredivisie · 2025Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeKras StadionFull-time recap

FC Volendam

DDDDL

1–2Full-time recap

Excelsior

LLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Volendam	Excelsior
Shots	14 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.68 xG/match	1.84 xG/match▲
Possession	49%	51%
Corners	5 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	19 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

FC Volendam: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.46 xG. Excelsior: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.81 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Volendam 1.46 xG · Excelsior 1.81 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Excelsior's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Excelsior's recent record differs from the season

weak

Excelsior's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	0.83 goals/match	1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Volendam favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Excelsior in 3 · 6 too close

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/60.83 goals/match

1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/62.17 goals/match

0.86 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/6▲1.17 xG/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/62.02 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/611.8 shots/match

17 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/617.8 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/64.33 shots/match

6.83 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/68.33 shots/match

43.5%Possessionseason · 6/644.8%

4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/63.83 corners/match

5.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲5.17 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/614.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/6▲17%

83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Volendam19.4

Excelsior27.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Volendam26.8

Excelsior26.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Volendam24.1

Excelsior12

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Volendam19.4

Excelsior25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Volendam25

Excelsior97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Volendam38.9

Excelsior30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Volendam27.1

Excelsior47.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

0.94 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.25 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots5/512.4 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match

43.8%Possession5/546.2%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/515 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match

1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match

0.86 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.17 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots6/611.8 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on target6/64.33 shots/match

43.5%Possession6/644.8%

4.17 corners/matchCorners6/63.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls6/614.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match

1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match

0.86 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.17 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots6/611.8 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on target6/64.33 shots/match

43.5%Possession6/644.8%

4.17 corners/matchCorners6/63.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls6/614.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31 goals/match

1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/33.33 goals/match

1 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.29 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots3/3▲12 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5.33 shots/match

38%Possession3/346.3%

3.33 corners/matchCorners3/33.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls3/316 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Excelsior's recent record differs from the season

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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