PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Stadion Woudestein

Excelsior 1–2 PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

PSV Eindhoven won 1–2.

Shots
1818
Shots on target
58
Expected goals
2.152.51
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

PSV Eindhoven beat Excelsior 2–1. Recorded in this match (Excelsior – PSV Eindhoven): shots 18–18, shots on target 5–8, expected goals 2.15–2.51, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

PSV Eindhoven show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

PSV Eindhoven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsExcelsior · PSV Eindhoven19.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorPSV EindhovenBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match19.3 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against17.9 shots/match15 shots/match14.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Excelsior's recent record differs from the season

weak

Excelsior's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.86 goals/match1.71 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

PSV Eindhoven have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.6%PossessionExcelsior · PSV Eindhoven● 60%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorPSV EindhovenBaseline
Possession43.6%60%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots18 shotsExcelsior 18 shots, PSV Eindhoven 18 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots8 shotsExcelsior 5 shots, PSV Eindhoven 8 shots
  • Expected goals2.15 xG2.51 xGExcelsior 2.15 xG, PSV Eindhoven 2.51 xG
  • Possession36%64%Excelsior 36%, PSV Eindhoven 64%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersExcelsior 3 corners, PSV Eindhoven 2 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls5 foulsExcelsior 8 fouls, PSV Eindhoven 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Adam Carlén · Excelsior · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChris-Kévin Nadje · Excelsior · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMike van Duinen · Excelsior · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChris-Kévin Nadje · Excelsior · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGuus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 61′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCasper Widell · Excelsior · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedStefan Mitrović · Excelsior · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPaul Wanner · PSV Eindhoven · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 37′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 51′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 9′ · 0.05 xG · on targetArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 12′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJerdy Schouten · PSV Eindhoven · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 66′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 19′ · 0.06 xG · goalIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 15′ · 0.08 xG · on targetIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 60′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRyan Flamingo · PSV Eindhoven · 38′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 61′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 34′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 22′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedYarek Gasiorowski · PSV Eindhoven · 38′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.26 xG · on targetIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 7′ · 0.34 xG · on targetIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 10′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 59′ · 0.38 xG · on targetSzymon Włodarczyk · Excelsior · 45′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedSzymon Włodarczyk · Excelsior · 13′ · 0.74 xG · goalIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 72′ · 0.76 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Excelsior: 18 shots, 5 on target, 2.10 xG. PSV Eindhoven: 18 shots, 8 on target, 2.92 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Szymon Włodarczyk · Excelsior · 13′Joey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 19′Ismael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Excelsior 2.10 xG · PSV Eindhoven 2.92 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Excelsior
0Draws
4PSV Eindhoven
Excelsior — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie0–2
PSV Eindhoven — Excelsior · Eredivisie3–1
PSV Eindhoven — Excelsior · Eredivisie4–0
Excelsior — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie1–6

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Excelsior favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · PSV Eindhoven in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Excelsior7 matchesPSV Eindhoven7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 3 goals/match
2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 1.57 goals/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 2.07 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 19.3 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 7.86 shots/match
43.6%Possession7/7● 60%
3.71 corners/matchCorners7/7● 6.43 corners/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls7/711.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headExcelsior — PSV Eindhoven
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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