PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025De Grolsch Veste

FC Twente 2–1 Heracles · Eredivisie

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Twente won 2–1.

Shots
217
Shots on target
92
Expected goals
1.30.6
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Twente beat Heracles Almelo 2–1. Recorded in this match (FC Twente – Heracles Almelo): shots 21–7, shots on target 9–2, expected goals 1.3–0.6, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Twente show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Twente's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.5 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Twente · Heracles Almelo10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC TwenteHeracles AlmeloBaseline
Shots18.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match14.1 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match21 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

FC Twente's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Twente's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.69 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Heracles Almelo have a visible away split

moderate

Heracles Almelo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.2 shots/match10.6 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots7 shotsFC Twente 21 shots, Heracles 7 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots2 shotsFC Twente 9 shots, Heracles 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.3 xG0.6 xGFC Twente 1.3 xG, Heracles 0.6 xG
  • Possession59%41%FC Twente 59%, Heracles 41%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersFC Twente 4 corners, Heracles 3 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls8 foulsFC Twente 5 fouls, Heracles 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Bart van Rooij · FC Twente · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKristian Hlynsson · FC Twente · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRamiz Zerrouki · FC Twente · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWalid Ould-Chikh · Heracles Almelo · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJannes Wieckhoff · Heracles Almelo · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBart van Rooij · FC Twente · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKristian Hlynsson · FC Twente · 54′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDaan Rots · FC Twente · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKristian Hlynsson · FC Twente · 12′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSondre Ørjasæter · FC Twente · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMats Rots · FC Twente · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSondre Ørjasæter · FC Twente · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSondre Ørjasæter · FC Twente · 2′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKristian Hlynsson · FC Twente · 26′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSondre Ørjasæter · FC Twente · 36′ · 0.05 xG · on targetThomas Van den Belt · FC Twente · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKristian Hlynsson · FC Twente · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetThomas Van den Belt · FC Twente · 84′ · 0.06 xG · goalAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRicky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente · 35′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 39′ · 0.07 xG · on targetThomas Van den Belt · FC Twente · 69′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMario Engels · Heracles Almelo · 82′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRicky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente · 25′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedIvan Mesík · Heracles Almelo · 43′ · 0.19 xG · goalMax Bruns · FC Twente · 48′ · 0.22 xG · goalSondre Ørjasæter · FC Twente · 52′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Twente: 21 shots, 9 on target, 1.38 xG. Heracles Almelo: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Max Bruns · FC Twente · 48′Thomas Van den Belt · FC Twente · 84′Ivan Mesík · Heracles Almelo · 43′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Twente 1.38 xG · Heracles Almelo 0.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Twente
2Draws
1Heracles
Heracles — FC Twente · Eredivisie2–1
FC Twente — Heracles · Eredivisie5–0
FC Twente — Heracles · Eredivisie1–0
Heracles — FC Twente · Eredivisie2–2
Heracles — FC Twente · Eredivisie1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Twente favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Heracles in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Twente8 matchesHeracles8 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/82.5 goals/match
1.85 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.84 xG/match
18.5 shots/match ▲Shots8/810.6 shots/match
6.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/83.38 shots/match
56.6% ●Possession8/841.4%
4.75 corners/match ●Corners8/83.63 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls7/812.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 14:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC TwenteHeracles
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Twente — Heracles
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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