PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeRat Verlegh StadionFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNAC BredaPEC Zwolle
Shots19 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.54 xG/match▲1.47 xG/match
Possession47%53%
Corners3 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jan Faberski · PEC Zwolle · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 43′ · 0.02 xG · goalKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCherrion Valerius · NAC Breda · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRyan Thomas · PEC Zwolle · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSimon Graves Jensen · PEC Zwolle · 74′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMaximilien Balard · NAC Breda · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 83′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 11′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 21′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 60′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 34′ · 0.08 xG · goalSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 37′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRio Hillen · NAC Breda · 12′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 67′ · 0.12 xG · goalMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 24′ · 0.13 xG · on targetKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 55′ · 0.13 xG · on targetMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 31′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRio Hillen · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 82′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 46′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedSherel Constancio Floranus · PEC Zwolle · 53′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 3′ · 0.31 xG · on targetJamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 70′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedJamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 79′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 40′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NAC Breda: 19 shots, 6 on target, 2.57 xG. PEC Zwolle: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Sydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 34′Sydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 40′Koen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 43′Jamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 67′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 2.57 xG · PEC Zwolle 1.48 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: PEC Zwolle's away-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.65 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

PEC Zwolle have a visible away split

moderate

PEC Zwolle's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season8.56 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match8.56 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

PEC Zwolle show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

PEC Zwolle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsNAC Breda · PEC Zwolle8.56 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNAC BredaPEC ZwolleBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match8.56 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match17.1 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

NAC Breda favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · PEC Zwolle in 2 · 4 too close

1.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91 goals/match
1.78 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.89 goals/match
1.41 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 9/90.97 xG/match
1.99 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.73 xG/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/98.56 shots/match
15.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/917.1 shots/match
4.44 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/92.22 shots/match
6.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/96.56 shots/match
47.2%Possessionseason · 9/943%
4.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/92.33 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95.56 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/910.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲22%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/967%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

NAC Breda36.1
PEC Zwolle22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

NAC Breda31.5
PEC Zwolle6.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

NAC Breda36.1
PEC Zwolle23.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

NAC Breda30.6
PEC Zwolle2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

NAC Breda75
PEC Zwolle30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

NAC Breda41.7
PEC Zwolle2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

NAC Breda47.2
PEC Zwolle9.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
1.56 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.78 xG/match
15 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52 shots/match
51.8%Possession5/541.4%
6 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.11 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91 goals/match
1.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.97 xG/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots9/98.56 shots/match
4.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.22 shots/match
47.2%Possession9/943%
4.44 corners/matchCorners9/92.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFouls9/910.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.11 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91 goals/match
1.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.97 xG/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots9/98.56 shots/match
4.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.22 shots/match
47.2%Possession9/943%
4.44 corners/matchCorners9/92.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFouls9/910.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
1.9 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.28 xG/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
49.6%Possession5/548%
5 corners/matchCorners5/51.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNAC BredaPEC Zwolle
CompetitionEredivisie
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match