PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Rat Verlegh Stadion

NAC Breda 2–2 PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle drew 2–2.

Shots
1911
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
2.541.47
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (NAC Breda – PEC Zwolle): shots 19–11, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 2.54–1.47, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.65 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

PEC Zwolle have a visible away split

moderate

PEC Zwolle's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season8.56 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match8.56 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

PEC Zwolle show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

PEC Zwolle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsNAC Breda · PEC Zwolle8.56 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNAC BredaPEC ZwolleBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match8.56 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match17.1 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots11 shotsNAC Breda 19 shots, PEC Zwolle 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsNAC Breda 6 shots, PEC Zwolle 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.54 xG1.47 xGNAC Breda 2.54 xG, PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG
  • Possession47%53%NAC Breda 47%, PEC Zwolle 53%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersNAC Breda 3 corners, PEC Zwolle 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls14 foulsNAC Breda 11 fouls, PEC Zwolle 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jan Faberski · PEC Zwolle · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 43′ · 0.02 xG · goalKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCherrion Valerius · NAC Breda · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRyan Thomas · PEC Zwolle · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSimon Graves Jensen · PEC Zwolle · 74′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMaximilien Balard · NAC Breda · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 83′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 11′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 21′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 60′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 34′ · 0.08 xG · goalSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 37′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRio Hillen · NAC Breda · 12′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 67′ · 0.12 xG · goalMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 24′ · 0.13 xG · on targetKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 55′ · 0.13 xG · on targetMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 31′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRio Hillen · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 82′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 46′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedSherel Constancio Floranus · PEC Zwolle · 53′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 3′ · 0.31 xG · on targetJamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 70′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedJamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 79′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 40′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NAC Breda: 19 shots, 6 on target, 2.57 xG. PEC Zwolle: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Sydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 34′Sydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 40′Koen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 43′Jamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 67′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 2.57 xG · PEC Zwolle 1.48 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1NAC Breda
0Draws
1PEC Zwolle
NAC Breda — PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie1–3
PEC Zwolle — NAC Breda · Eredivisie1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NAC Breda favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · PEC Zwolle in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NAC Breda9 matchesPEC Zwolle9 matches
1.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/91 goal/match
1.78 goals/match ▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
1.41 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/90.97 xG/match
12.7 shots/match ▲Shots9/98.56 shots/match
4.44 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/92.22 shots/match
47.2% ●Possession9/943%
4.44 corners/match ●Corners9/92.33 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls9/910.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNAC BredaPEC Zwolle
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headNAC Breda — PEC Zwolle
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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