PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Stadion Woudestein

Excelsior 1–0 Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Excelsior won 1–0.

Shots
1115
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.081.07
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Excelsior beat Fortuna Sittard 1–0. Recorded in this match (Excelsior – Fortuna Sittard): shots 11–15, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.08–1.07, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortuna Sittard's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortuna Sittard's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.61 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortuna Sittard have a visible away split

moderate

Fortuna Sittard's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.8 fouls/matchFoulsExcelsior · Fortuna Sittard13.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorFortuna SittardBaseline
Fouls13.8 fouls/match13.8 fouls/match11.8 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots15 shotsExcelsior 11 shots, Fortuna Sittard 15 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsExcelsior 5 shots, Fortuna Sittard 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.08 xG1.07 xGExcelsior 1.08 xG, Fortuna Sittard 1.07 xG
  • Possession51%49%Excelsior 51%, Fortuna Sittard 49%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersExcelsior 4 corners, Fortuna Sittard 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls18 foulsExcelsior 10 fouls, Fortuna Sittard 18 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ilias Bronkhorst · Excelsior · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDimitris Limnios · Fortuna Sittard · 18′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedStefan Mitrović · Excelsior · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRyan Fosso · Fortuna Sittard · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCasper Widell · Excelsior · 6′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 83′ · 0.03 xG · on targetArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDimitris Limnios · Fortuna Sittard · 77′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJustin Lonwijk · Fortuna Sittard · 1′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPhilip Brittijn · Fortuna Sittard · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 66′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHouboulang Mendes · Fortuna Sittard · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDimitris Limnios · Fortuna Sittard · 18′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 41′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 44′ · 0.07 xG · on targetKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 44′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 2′ · 0.08 xG · on targetKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 18′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 82′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMakan Aïko · Fortuna Sittard · 53′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 28′ · 0.13 xG · on targetKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 18′ · 0.14 xG · on targetGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 68′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedCasper Widell · Excelsior · 87′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 9′ · 0.34 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Excelsior: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.08 xG. Fortuna Sittard: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Gyan de Regt · Excelsior · 9′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Excelsior 1.08 xG · Fortuna Sittard 1.06 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Excelsior
1Draws
2Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard — Excelsior · Eredivisie5–2
Excelsior — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie2–2
Excelsior — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie3–0
Fortuna Sittard — Excelsior · Eredivisie1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Excelsior favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Fortuna Sittard in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Excelsior9 matchesFortuna Sittard9 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.23 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.1 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 12.9 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on target9/94.33 shots/match
43.3%Possession9/9● 48.6%
3.67 corners/match ●Corners9/93.56 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls9/913.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsExcelsiorFortuna Sittard
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headExcelsior — Fortuna Sittard
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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