PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Rat Verlegh Stadion

NAC Breda 0–1 PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

PSV Eindhoven won 0–1.

Shots
169
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
1.210.56
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

PSV Eindhoven beat NAC Breda 1–0. Recorded in this match (NAC Breda – PSV Eindhoven): shots 16–9, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.21–0.56, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

weak

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

PSV Eindhoven have a visible away split

moderate

PSV Eindhoven's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season18 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match18 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

PSV Eindhoven show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

PSV Eindhoven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsNAC Breda · PSV Eindhoven18 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNAC BredaPSV EindhovenBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match18 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots9 shotsNAC Breda 16 shots, PSV Eindhoven 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsNAC Breda 3 shots, PSV Eindhoven 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.21 xG0.56 xGNAC Breda 1.21 xG, PSV Eindhoven 0.56 xG
  • Possession47%53%NAC Breda 47%, PSV Eindhoven 53%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersNAC Breda 6 corners, PSV Eindhoven 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls15 foulsNAC Breda 11 fouls, PSV Eindhoven 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Charles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 32′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnass Salah-Eddine · PSV Eindhoven · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Jensen · NAC Breda · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJerdy Schouten · PSV Eindhoven · 77′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 23′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 24′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGuus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 36′ · 0.06 xG · goalIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 39′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDaan Van Reeuwijk · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDaan Van Reeuwijk · NAC Breda · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCherrion Valerius · NAC Breda · 5′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 61′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGuus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 27′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 83′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedGuus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 35′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 76′ · 0.12 xG · on targetBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 59′ · 0.20 xG · on targetCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 71′ · 0.32 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NAC Breda: 16 shots, 3 on target, 1.21 xG. PSV Eindhoven: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Guus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 36′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 1.21 xG · PSV Eindhoven 0.58 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0NAC Breda
0Draws
2PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven — NAC Breda · Eredivisie3–2
NAC Breda — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NAC Breda favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · PSV Eindhoven in 10

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NAC Breda13 matchesPSV Eindhoven13 matches
1.15 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲ 3.15 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.31 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲ 1.99 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 18 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 7.23 shots/match
47%Possession13/13● 59.2%
4.54 corners/matchCorners13/13● 6.31 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNAC BredaPSV Eindhoven
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headNAC Breda — PSV Eindhoven
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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