PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Stadion Woudestein

Excelsior 1–0 NAC Breda · Eredivisie

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Excelsior won 1–0.

Shots
522
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.951.67
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Excelsior beat NAC Breda 1–0. Recorded in this match (Excelsior – NAC Breda): shots 5–22, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.95–1.67, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Excelsior's recent record differs from the season

weak

Excelsior's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots5 shots22 shotsExcelsior 5 shots, NAC Breda 22 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsExcelsior 2 shots, NAC Breda 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.95 xG1.67 xGExcelsior 0.95 xG, NAC Breda 1.67 xG
  • Possession43%57%Excelsior 43%, NAC Breda 57%
  • Corners1 corner6 cornersExcelsior 1 corner, NAC Breda 6 corners
  • Fouls22 fouls12 foulsExcelsior 22 fouls, NAC Breda 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Charles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCherrion Valerius · NAC Breda · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 61′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 83′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 67′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRio Hillen · NAC Breda · 89′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 85′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDenis Odoi · NAC Breda · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 54′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJerolldino Bergraaf · Excelsior · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 44′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRio Hillen · NAC Breda · 69′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 77′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 87′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 82′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 79′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 23′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Excelsior: 5 shots, 2 on target, 1.00 xG. NAC Breda: 22 shots, 3 on target, 1.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Noah Naujoks · Excelsior · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Excelsior 1.00 xG · NAC Breda 1.71 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Excelsior
0Draws
1NAC Breda
Excelsior — NAC Breda · Eredivisie4–1
NAC Breda — Excelsior · Eredivisie6–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Excelsior favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · NAC Breda in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Excelsior14 matchesNAC Breda14 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 1.07 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed14/141.64 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals14/141.3 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots14/14▲ 13.1 shots/match
4.21 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/143.86 shots/match
44%Possession14/14● 47.7%
4.07 corners/matchCorners14/14● 4.64 corners/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsExcelsiorNAC Breda
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headExcelsior — NAC Breda
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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