PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Johan Cruijff ArenA

AFC Ajax 1–2 Excelsior · Eredivisie

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Excelsior won 1–2.

Shots
158
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.30.43
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Excelsior beat AFC Ajax 2–1. Recorded in this match (AFC Ajax – Excelsior): shots 15–8, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.3–0.43, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AFC Ajax's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AFC Ajax's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.77 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAFC Ajax · Excelsior12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxExcelsiorBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match16.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

AFC Ajax have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.8% ●PossessionAFC Ajax · Excelsior44.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxExcelsiorBaseline
Possession57.8%44.1%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots8 shotsAFC Ajax 15 shots, Excelsior 8 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsAFC Ajax 5 shots, Excelsior 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.3 xG0.43 xGAFC Ajax 1.3 xG, Excelsior 0.43 xG
  • Possession64%36%AFC Ajax 64%, Excelsior 36%
  • Corners9 corners2 cornersAFC Ajax 9 corners, Excelsior 2 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls13 foulsAFC Ajax 4 fouls, Excelsior 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Noah Naujoks · Excelsior · 31′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJerolldino Bergraaf · Excelsior · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWout Weghorst · AFC Ajax · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosip Šutalo · AFC Ajax · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIlias Bronkhorst · Excelsior · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYouri Baas · AFC Ajax · 3′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOliver Valaker Edvardsen · AFC Ajax · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIlias Bronkhorst · Excelsior · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWout Weghorst · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 37′ · 0.07 xG · goalKenneth Taylor · AFC Ajax · 70′ · 0.08 xG · on targetOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 19′ · 0.09 xG · on targetNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 47′ · 0.09 xG · goalYouri Baas · AFC Ajax · 79′ · 0.09 xG · on targetKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOliver Valaker Edvardsen · AFC Ajax · 15′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMike van Duinen · Excelsior · 69′ · 0.10 xG · on targetWout Weghorst · AFC Ajax · 36′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedWout Weghorst · AFC Ajax · 71′ · 0.18 xG · on targetKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.26 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AFC Ajax: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.28 xG. Excelsior: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 59′Noah Naujoks · Excelsior · 37′Noah Naujoks · Excelsior · 47′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AFC Ajax 1.28 xG · Excelsior 0.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2AFC Ajax
2Draws
0Excelsior
AFC Ajax — Excelsior · Eredivisie2–2
Excelsior — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–2
Excelsior — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie1–4
AFC Ajax — Excelsior · Eredivisie7–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AFC Ajax favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Excelsior in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AFC Ajax13 matchesExcelsior13 matches
1.77 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131 goal/match
1.46 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/131.85 goals/match
1.58 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/131.3 xG/match
14.8 shots/match ▲Shots13/1312.4 shots/match
6.08 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/134.38 shots/match
57.8% ●Possession13/1344.1%
5.85 corners/match ●Corners13/134.31 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAFC AjaxExcelsior
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headAFC Ajax — Excelsior
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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