PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Het Kasteel

Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 NAC Breda · Eredivisie

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Sparta Rotterdam won 1–0.

Shots
1222
Shots on target
69
Expected goals
2.431.42
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Sparta Rotterdam beat NAC Breda 1–0. Recorded in this match (Sparta Rotterdam – NAC Breda): shots 12–22, shots on target 6–9, expected goals 2.43–1.42, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

NAC Breda show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

NAC Breda's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsSparta Rotterdam · NAC Breda13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSparta RotterdamNAC BredaBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match14.1 shots/match
Shots against17.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots22 shotsSparta Rotterdam 12 shots, NAC Breda 22 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots9 shotsSparta Rotterdam 6 shots, NAC Breda 9 shots
  • Expected goals2.43 xG1.42 xGSparta Rotterdam 2.43 xG, NAC Breda 1.42 xG
  • Possession41%59%Sparta Rotterdam 41%, NAC Breda 59%
  • Corners1 corner14 cornersSparta Rotterdam 1 corner, NAC Breda 14 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsSparta Rotterdam 11 fouls, NAC Breda 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Cherrion Valerius · NAC Breda · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMaximilien Balard · NAC Breda · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCherrion Valerius · NAC Breda · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAyoub Oufkir · Sparta Rotterdam · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAyoni Santos · Sparta Rotterdam · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 69′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 16′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedShunsuke Mito · Sparta Rotterdam · 68′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 72′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDenis Odoi · NAC Breda · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 88′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPepijn Reulen · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetTobias Lauritsen · Sparta Rotterdam · 12′ · 0.07 xG · on targetCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 60′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYounes Jaber el Maftahi · Sparta Rotterdam · 62′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 48′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAyoni Santos · Sparta Rotterdam · 22′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAyoub Oufkir · Sparta Rotterdam · 30′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJulian Baas · Sparta Rotterdam · 83′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 50′ · 0.11 xG · on targetBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.13 xG · on targetRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 18′ · 0.18 xG · on targetJulian Baas · Sparta Rotterdam · 23′ · 0.20 xG · on targetSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAyoub Oufkir · Sparta Rotterdam · 14′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedShunsuke Mito · Sparta Rotterdam · 26′ · 0.58 xG · goalAyoub Oufkir · Sparta Rotterdam · 12′ · 0.84 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Sparta Rotterdam: 12 shots, 6 on target, 2.53 xG. NAC Breda: 22 shots, 9 on target, 1.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Shunsuke Mito · Sparta Rotterdam · 26′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Sparta Rotterdam 2.53 xG · NAC Breda 1.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Sparta Rotterdam
1Draws
1NAC Breda
NAC Breda — Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie1–1
Sparta Rotterdam — NAC Breda · Eredivisie0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sparta Rotterdam favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · NAC Breda in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sparta Rotterdam15 matchesNAC Breda15 matches
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/151 goal/match
1.87 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1.6 goals/match
1.39 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/151.31 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots15/15▲ 13.7 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target14/154.2 shots/match
44.5%Possession15/15● 48.5%
4.07 corners/matchCorners15/15● 5.27 corners/match
8.93 fouls/matchFouls14/1511.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSparta RotterdamNAC Breda
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headSparta Rotterdam — NAC Breda
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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