PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Philips Stadion

PSV Eindhoven 5–1 Excelsior · Eredivisie

5–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

PSV Eindhoven won 5–1.

Shots
168
Shots on target
83
Expected goals
2.30.5
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

PSV Eindhoven beat Excelsior 5–1. Recorded in this match (PSV Eindhoven – Excelsior): shots 16–8, shots on target 8–3, expected goals 2.3–0.5, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

PSV Eindhoven show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

PSV Eindhoven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.5 shots/match ▲ShotsPSV Eindhoven · Excelsior11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPSV EindhovenExcelsiorBaseline
Shots17.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match16.5 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Excelsior's recent record differs from the season

weak

Excelsior's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

PSV Eindhoven have a visible home split

moderate

PSV Eindhoven's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season17.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.6 shots/match17.5 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots8 shotsPSV Eindhoven 16 shots, Excelsior 8 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots3 shotsPSV Eindhoven 8 shots, Excelsior 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.3 xG0.5 xGPSV Eindhoven 2.3 xG, Excelsior 0.5 xG
  • Possession50%50%PSV Eindhoven 50%, Excelsior 50%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersPSV Eindhoven 6 corners, Excelsior 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls7 foulsPSV Eindhoven 10 fouls, Excelsior 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ivan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoah Fernandez · PSV Eindhoven · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEsmir Bajraktarević · PSV Eindhoven · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIlias Bronkhorst · Excelsior · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJerolldino Bergraaf · Excelsior · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEsmir Bajraktarević · PSV Eindhoven · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMauro Júnior · PSV Eindhoven · 18′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 34′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 60′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKiliann Sildillia · PSV Eindhoven · 78′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 71′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 11′ · 0.10 xG · on targetCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 72′ · 0.11 xG · on targetRyan Flamingo · PSV Eindhoven · 39′ · 0.17 xG · goalIlias Bronkhorst · Excelsior · 45′ · 0.19 xG · goalDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 69′ · 0.19 xG · goalPaul Wanner · PSV Eindhoven · 8′ · 0.24 xG · goalYarek Gasiorowski · PSV Eindhoven · 33′ · 0.24 xG · goalRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 23′ · 0.89 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PSV Eindhoven: 16 shots, 8 on target, 2.27 xG. Excelsior: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Paul Wanner · PSV Eindhoven · 8′Ricardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 23′Yarek Gasiorowski · PSV Eindhoven · 33′Ryan Flamingo · PSV Eindhoven · 39′Dennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 69′Ilias Bronkhorst · Excelsior · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PSV Eindhoven 2.27 xG · Excelsior 0.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5PSV Eindhoven
0Draws
0Excelsior
Excelsior — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie1–2
Excelsior — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie0–2
PSV Eindhoven — Excelsior · Eredivisie3–1
PSV Eindhoven — Excelsior · Eredivisie4–0
Excelsior — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie1–6

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: PSV Eindhoven favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Excelsior in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

PSV Eindhoven18 matchesExcelsior17 matches
3.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/171 goal/match
1.22 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/171.88 goals/match
1.94 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/171.29 xG/match
17.5 shots/match ▲Shots18/1711.9 shots/match
7.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/174.24 shots/match
59.3% ●Possession18/1744.7%
6.56 corners/match ●Corners18/174.06 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls18/1713.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPSV EindhovenExcelsior
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headPSV Eindhoven — Excelsior
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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