PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Erve Asito

Heracles 0–1 NAC Breda · Eredivisie

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

NAC Breda won 0–1.

Shots
1413
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
1.121.26
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

NAC Breda beat Heracles Almelo 1–0. Recorded in this match (Heracles Almelo – NAC Breda): shots 14–13, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1.12–1.26, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Heracles Almelo have a visible home split

strong

Heracles Almelo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

NAC Breda show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

NAC Breda's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsHeracles Almelo · NAC Breda13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHeracles AlmeloNAC BredaBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.5 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against17 shots/match13 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots13 shotsHeracles 14 shots, NAC Breda 13 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsHeracles 3 shots, NAC Breda 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.12 xG1.26 xGHeracles 1.12 xG, NAC Breda 1.26 xG
  • Possession53%47%Heracles 53%, NAC Breda 47%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersHeracles 4 corners, NAC Breda 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsHeracles 12 fouls, NAC Breda 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mike te Wierik · Heracles Almelo · 59′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDenis Odoi · NAC Breda · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 66′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 69′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIvan Mesík · Heracles Almelo · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 72′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCherrion Valerius · NAC Breda · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRhys Bozinovski · Heracles Almelo · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThomas Bruns · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNaci Ünüvar · Heracles Almelo · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 88′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 55′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIvan Mesík · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 21′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 11′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSava Arangel Čestić · Heracles Almelo · 21′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedNaci Ünüvar · Heracles Almelo · 63′ · 0.30 xG · on targetAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 63′ · 0.30 xG · on targetClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 80′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Heracles Almelo: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.22 xG. NAC Breda: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.30 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Clint Leemans · NAC Breda · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Heracles Almelo 1.22 xG · NAC Breda 1.30 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Heracles
1Draws
1NAC Breda
NAC Breda — Heracles · Eredivisie2–1
NAC Breda — Heracles · Eredivisie1–1
Heracles — NAC Breda · Eredivisie2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Heracles favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · NAC Breda in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Heracles23 matchesNAC Breda23 matches
1.35 goals/match ▲Goals scored23/231.04 goals/match
2.52 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 1.57 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals23/231.23 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 13.5 shots/match
4.04 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 4.26 shots/match
43.3%Possession23/23● 48.7%
4.35 corners/matchCorners23/23● 5.26 corners/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2311 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHeraclesNAC Breda
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headHeracles — NAC Breda
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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