PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Stadion Woudestein

Excelsior 1–2 AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AZ Alkmaar won 1–2.

Shots
1116
Shots on target
27
Expected goals
0.752.01
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

AZ Alkmaar beat Excelsior 2–1. Recorded in this match (Excelsior – AZ Alkmaar): shots 11–16, shots on target 2–7, expected goals 0.75–2.01, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AZ Alkmaar's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AZ Alkmaar's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.7 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.7 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AZ Alkmaar show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AZ Alkmaar's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsExcelsior · AZ Alkmaar15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorAZ AlkmaarBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match15.8 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against15.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AZ Alkmaar have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.3%PossessionExcelsior · AZ Alkmaar● 53.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorAZ AlkmaarBaseline
Possession45.3%53.3%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots16 shotsExcelsior 11 shots, AZ Alkmaar 16 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots7 shotsExcelsior 2 shots, AZ Alkmaar 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.75 xG2.01 xGExcelsior 0.75 xG, AZ Alkmaar 2.01 xG
  • Possession45%55%Excelsior 45%, AZ Alkmaar 55%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersExcelsior 7 corners, AZ Alkmaar 5 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls6 foulsExcelsior 7 fouls, AZ Alkmaar 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Noah Naujoks · Excelsior · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIlias Bronkhorst · Excelsior · 45′ · 0.02 xG · goalDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Sadiq · AZ Alkmaar · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKasper Boogaard · AZ Alkmaar · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMexx Meerdink · AZ Alkmaar · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTroy Parrott · AZ Alkmaar · 90′ · 0.03 xG · goalIbrahim Sadiq · AZ Alkmaar · 55′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIbrahim Sadiq · AZ Alkmaar · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 39′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTroy Parrott · AZ Alkmaar · 50′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKasper Boogaard · AZ Alkmaar · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSven Mijnans · AZ Alkmaar · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMexx Meerdink · AZ Alkmaar · 81′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJizz Hornkamp · AZ Alkmaar · 18′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 2′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLewis Schouten · Excelsior · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 25′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 27′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 46′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLennard Hartjes · Excelsior · 80′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedWeslley Patati · AZ Alkmaar · 10′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedSven Mijnans · AZ Alkmaar · 62′ · 0.18 xG · on targetMexx Meerdink · AZ Alkmaar · 72′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedAlexandre Penetra · AZ Alkmaar · 90′ · 0.30 xG · goalTroy Parrott · AZ Alkmaar · 65′ · 0.57 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Excelsior: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.76 xG. AZ Alkmaar: 16 shots, 7 on target, 1.99 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ilias Bronkhorst · Excelsior · 45′Troy Parrott · AZ Alkmaar · 90′Alexandre Penetra · AZ Alkmaar · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Excelsior 0.76 xG · AZ Alkmaar 1.99 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Excelsior
2Draws
2AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar — Excelsior · Eredivisie1–1
AZ Alkmaar — Excelsior · Eredivisie4–0
Excelsior — AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie1–1
AZ Alkmaar — Excelsior · Eredivisie5–0
Excelsior — AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Excelsior favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · AZ Alkmaar in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Excelsior23 matchesAZ Alkmaar23 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 1.7 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 1.61 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.9 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 15.8 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 5.83 shots/match
45.3%Possession23/23● 53.3%
4.17 corners/matchCorners23/23● 5.65 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls23/2310.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsExcelsiorAZ Alkmaar
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headExcelsior — AZ Alkmaar
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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