PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Erve Asito

Heracles 1–3 PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

PSV Eindhoven won 1–3.

Shots
1524
Shots on target
315
Expected goals
1.223.26
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles Almelo 3–1. Recorded in this match (Heracles Almelo – PSV Eindhoven): shots 15–24, shots on target 3–15, expected goals 1.22–3.26, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Heracles Almelo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Heracles Almelo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.28 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.28 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

PSV Eindhoven show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

PSV Eindhoven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHeracles Almelo · PSV Eindhoven18 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHeracles AlmeloPSV EindhovenBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match18 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against17.1 shots/match11.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Heracles Almelo have a visible home split

strong

Heracles Almelo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match11.1 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots24 shotsHeracles 15 shots, PSV Eindhoven 24 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots15 shotsHeracles 3 shots, PSV Eindhoven 15 shots
  • Expected goals1.22 xG3.26 xGHeracles 1.22 xG, PSV Eindhoven 3.26 xG
  • Possession38%62%Heracles 38%, PSV Eindhoven 62%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersHeracles 3 corners, PSV Eindhoven 5 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls14 foulsHeracles 15 fouls, PSV Eindhoven 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ivan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMauro Júnior · PSV Eindhoven · 30′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWalid Ould-Chikh · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 80′ · 0.02 xG · goalIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 12′ · 0.03 xG · goalDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 35′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 58′ · 0.03 xG · on targetThomas Bruns · Heracles Almelo · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 17′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles Almelo · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMyron Boadu · PSV Eindhoven · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMike te Wierik · Heracles Almelo · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 58′ · 0.05 xG · on targetThomas Bruns · Heracles Almelo · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJannes Wieckhoff · Heracles Almelo · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPaul Wanner · PSV Eindhoven · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSergiño Dest · PSV Eindhoven · 32′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIvan Mesík · Heracles Almelo · 19′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 25′ · 0.08 xG · on targetKiliann Sildillia · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPaul Wanner · PSV Eindhoven · 12′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 66′ · 0.10 xG · on targetNaci Ünüvar · Heracles Almelo · 67′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 87′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 19′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 31′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedNaci Ünüvar · Heracles Almelo · 59′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 77′ · 0.18 xG · on targetIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 25′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedThomas Bruns · Heracles Almelo · 65′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 40′ · 0.38 xG · goalDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 88′ · 0.44 xG · on targetIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 9′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Heracles Almelo: 15 shots, 3 on target, 1.21 xG. PSV Eindhoven: 24 shots, 15 on target, 3.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Lequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 80′Ivan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 9′Ismael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 12′Dennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 40′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Heracles Almelo 1.21 xG · PSV Eindhoven 3.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Heracles
0Draws
5PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven — Heracles · Eredivisie4–3
PSV Eindhoven — Heracles · Eredivisie4–1
Heracles — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie1–3
PSV Eindhoven — Heracles · Eredivisie2–0
Heracles — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie0–6

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Heracles favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · PSV Eindhoven in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Heracles25 matchesPSV Eindhoven25 matches
1.28 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 2.92 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.2 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 2.11 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 18 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 7.32 shots/match
43.4%Possession25/25● 61.1%
4.32 corners/matchCorners25/25● 7.32 corners/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2511 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHeraclesPSV Eindhoven
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headHeracles — PSV Eindhoven
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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