PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Stadion de Goffert

NEC Nijmegen 2–3 Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fortuna Sittard won 2–3.

Shots
1513
Shots on target
49
Expected goals
1.462.45
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortuna Sittard beat NEC Nijmegen 3–2. Recorded in this match (NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard): shots 15–13, shots on target 4–9, expected goals 1.46–2.45, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NEC Nijmegen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NEC Nijmegen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.44 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortuna Sittard have a visible away split

moderate

Fortuna Sittard's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

NEC Nijmegen show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

NEC Nijmegen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.8 shots/match ▲ShotsNEC Nijmegen · Fortuna Sittard12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNEC NijmegenFortuna SittardBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match15.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots13 shotsNEC Nijmegen 15 shots, Fortuna Sittard 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots9 shotsNEC Nijmegen 4 shots, Fortuna Sittard 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.46 xG2.45 xGNEC Nijmegen 1.46 xG, Fortuna Sittard 2.45 xG
  • Possession68%32%NEC Nijmegen 68%, Fortuna Sittard 32%
  • Corners10 corners5 cornersNEC Nijmegen 10 corners, Fortuna Sittard 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsNEC Nijmegen 10 fouls, Fortuna Sittard 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lance Duijvestijn · Fortuna Sittard · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 22′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 59′ · 0.03 xG · goalMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJasper Dahlhaus · Fortuna Sittard · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 4′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhilip Brittijn · Fortuna Sittard · 11′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBaşar Önal · NEC Nijmegen · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNoe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 86′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJustin Hubner · Fortuna Sittard · 47′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDimitris Limnios · Fortuna Sittard · 11′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDeveron Fonville · NEC Nijmegen · 75′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNoe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalKoki Ogawa · NEC Nijmegen · 9′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKodai Sano · NEC Nijmegen · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedVirgil Misidjan · NEC Nijmegen · 87′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDanilo · NEC Nijmegen · 30′ · 0.15 xG · on targetIván Márquez · Fortuna Sittard · 27′ · 0.35 xG · goalKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 90′ · 0.38 xG · on targetKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 64′ · 0.40 xG · on targetTjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 19′ · 0.43 xG · goalJustin Hubner · Fortuna Sittard · 65′ · 1.00 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NEC Nijmegen: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.48 xG. Fortuna Sittard: 13 shots, 9 on target, 2.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Tjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 19′Bryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 90′Iván Márquez · Fortuna Sittard · 27′Mohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 59′Justin Hubner · Fortuna Sittard · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NEC Nijmegen 1.48 xG · Fortuna Sittard 2.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3NEC Nijmegen
1Draws
1Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie3–2
NEC Nijmegen — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie4–1
Fortuna Sittard — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie0–3
Fortuna Sittard — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie1–1
NEC Nijmegen — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NEC Nijmegen favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Fortuna Sittard in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NEC Nijmegen25 matchesFortuna Sittard25 matches
2.44 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.56 goals/match
1.72 goals/matchGoals allowed25/251.8 goals/match
1.75 xG/match ▲Expected goals25/251.18 xG/match
15.8 shots/match ▲Shots25/2512.8 shots/match
6.64 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/254.64 shots/match
57.6% ●Possession25/2544.8%
5.48 corners/match ●Corners25/254.4 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls24/2513.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headNEC Nijmegen — Fortuna Sittard
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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