PitchMath
Süper Lig · 2025Vefa Stadium

Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Kocaelispor · Süper Lig

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor drew 1–1.

Shots
816
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
0.991.15
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Fatih Karagümrük – Kocaelispor): shots 8–16, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 0.99–1.15, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Kocaelispor's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Kocaelispor's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.81 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.81 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fatih Karagümrük show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Fatih Karagümrük's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsFatih Karagümrük · Kocaelispor10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFatih KaragümrükKocaelisporBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match10.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against15.7 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots16 shotsFatih Karagümrük 8 shots, Kocaelispor 16 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsFatih Karagümrük 2 shots, Kocaelispor 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.99 xG1.15 xGFatih Karagümrük 0.99 xG, Kocaelispor 1.15 xG
  • Possession35%65%Fatih Karagümrük 35%, Kocaelispor 65%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersFatih Karagümrük 2 corners, Kocaelispor 6 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls12 foulsFatih Karagümrük 15 fouls, Kocaelispor 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Habib Keita · Kocaelispor · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKarol Linetty · Kocaelispor · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBotond Balogh · Kocaelispor · 35′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Agyei · Kocaelispor · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJure Balkovec · Fatih Karagümrük · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Agyei · Kocaelispor · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Agyei · Kocaelispor · 1′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavid Datro Fofana · Fatih Karagümrük · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHrvoje Smolčić · Kocaelispor · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKarol Linetty · Kocaelispor · 59′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTayfur Bingöl · Kocaelispor · 71′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDaniel Agyei · Kocaelispor · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedShow · Kocaelispor · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKarol Linetty · Kocaelispor · 52′ · 0.06 xG · on targetÇağtay Kurukalıp · Fatih Karagümrük · 55′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDavid Datro Fofana · Fatih Karagümrük · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDarko Churlinov · Kocaelispor · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHrvoje Smolčić · Kocaelispor · 35′ · 0.11 xG · on targetSerginho · Fatih Karagümrük · 21′ · 0.15 xG · on targetDavid Datro Fofana · Fatih Karagümrük · 21′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedSerginho · Fatih Karagümrük · 25′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedSerdar Dursun · Kocaelispor · 16′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedDavid Datro Fofana · Fatih Karagümrük · 65′ · 0.36 xG · goalBruno Petković · Kocaelispor · 90′ · 0.41 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fatih Karagümrük: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.00 xG. Kocaelispor: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′David Datro Fofana · Fatih Karagümrük · 65′Bruno Petković · Kocaelispor · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 xG · Kocaelispor 1.16 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fatih Karagümrük favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Kocaelispor in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fatih Karagümrük16 matchesKocaelispor16 matches
0.88 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/160.81 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 1 goal/match
1.01 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/160.89 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots16/1610.4 shots/match
2.75 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 3.56 shots/match
47%Possession16/16● 50%
3.75 corners/matchCorners16/16● 4.56 corners/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Süper Lig

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFatih KaragümrükKocaelispor
CompetitionSüper LigSüper Lig 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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