Championship · 2025Sat, 23 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeSt. Mary's StadiumFull-time recap

Southampton

1–2Full-time recap

Stoke City

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Southampton	Stoke City
Shots	18 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.59 xG/match▲	1.5 xG/match
Possession	65%●	35%
Corners	7 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Southampton: 18 shots, 2 on target, 2.62 xG. Stoke City: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Southampton 2.62 xG · Stoke City 1.58 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Southampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.33 corners/match●CornersSouthampton · Stoke City5.67 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Southampton	Stoke City	Baseline
Corners	6.33 corners/match	5.67 corners/match	4.5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Southampton show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Southampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.7 shots/match▲ShotsSouthampton · Stoke City12 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Southampton	Stoke City	Baseline
Shots	18.7 shots/match	12 shots/match	12 shots/match
Shots against	12 shots/match	12 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Southampton have recorded the higher season possession share.

63.3%●PossessionSouthampton · Stoke City49.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Southampton	Stoke City	Baseline
Possession	63.3%	49.7%	49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Southampton favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Stoke City in 0 · 13 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/32.67 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/30.67 goals/match

2.49 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.55 xG/match

1.67 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.49 xG/match

18.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/312 shots/match

12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/312 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/35.67 shots/match

2.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/33 shots/match

63.3%●Possessionseason · 3/349.7%

6.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 3/35.67 corners/match

3.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/35.33 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/311.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/333%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/3100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Southampton95.8

Stoke City47.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Southampton78.5

Stoke City78.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Southampton58.3

Stoke City65.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Southampton77.1

Stoke City39.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Southampton64.6

Stoke City41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Southampton77.1

Stoke City66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Southampton79.7

Stoke City62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Southampton3 matchesStoke City3 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.67 goals/match

2.49 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.55 xG/match

18.7 shots/match▲Shots3/312 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5.67 shots/match

63.3%●Possession3/349.7%

6.33 corners/match●Corners3/35.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFouls3/311.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Southampton2 matchesStoke City2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4