PitchMath
Championship · 2025St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Birmingham City 1–0 Oxford United · Championship

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Birmingham City won 1–0.

Shots
166
Shots on target
11
Expected goals
1.650.38
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Birmingham City beat Oxford United 1–0. Recorded in this match (Birmingham City – Oxford United): shots 16–6, shots on target 1–1, expected goals 1.65–0.38, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Oxford United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Oxford United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match ▲ShotsBirmingham City · Oxford United11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBirmingham CityOxford UnitedBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against6 shots/match14.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Birmingham City have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.7% ●PossessionBirmingham City · Oxford United36%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBirmingham CityOxford UnitedBaseline
Possession58.7%36%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsBirmingham City · Oxford United13.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBirmingham CityOxford UnitedBaseline
Fouls13.3 fouls/match13.3 fouls/match11.5 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots6 shotsBirmingham City 16 shots, Oxford United 6 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot1 shotBirmingham City 1 shot, Oxford United 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.65 xG0.38 xGBirmingham City 1.65 xG, Oxford United 0.38 xG
  • Possession66%34%Birmingham City 66%, Oxford United 34%
  • Corners4 corners1 cornerBirmingham City 4 corners, Oxford United 1 corner
  • Fouls11 fouls17 foulsBirmingham City 11 fouls, Oxford United 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Demarai Gray · Birmingham City · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTomoki Iwata · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTyler Goodrham · Oxford United · 1′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTyler Goodrham · Oxford United · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 16′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLyndon Dykes · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTommy Doyle · Birmingham City · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 5′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEthan Laird · Birmingham City · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWillum Thor Willumsson · Birmingham City · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPrzemysław Płacheta · Oxford United · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedStanley Mills · Oxford United · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEthan Laird · Birmingham City · 3′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 32′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 84′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 40′ · 0.11 xG · goalMark Harris · Oxford United · 90′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedKyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham City · 28′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedKyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham City · 5′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedKyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham City · 11′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Birmingham City: 16 shots, 1 on target, 1.64 xG. Oxford United: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 40′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Birmingham City 1.64 xG · Oxford United 0.38 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Birmingham City favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Oxford United in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Birmingham City3 matchesOxford United3 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed3/31.67 goals/match
1.68 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/30.92 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots3/311.7 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲ 3.67 shots/match
58.7% ●Possession3/336%
3.33 corners/matchCorners3/3● 4.33 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls3/313.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBirmingham CityOxford United
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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