Championship · 2025Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timePortman Road StadiumFull-time recap

Ipswich Town

DDL

2–2Full-time recap

Derby County

LLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Ipswich Town	Derby County
Shots	18 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.91 xG/match▲	1.48 xG/match
Possession	69%●	31%
Corners	6 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Ipswich Town: 18 shots, 5 on target, 2.94 xG. Derby County: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.53 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Ipswich Town 2.94 xG · Derby County 1.53 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Derby County's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Ipswich Town have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Derby County show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Derby County's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsIpswich Town · Derby County7.75 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Ipswich Town	Derby County	Baseline
Shots	13.5 shots/match	7.75 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	8.5 shots/match	15.3 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Ipswich Town have recorded the higher season possession share.

60%●PossessionIpswich Town · Derby County40.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Ipswich Town	Derby County	Baseline
Possession	60%	40.5%	50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Ipswich Town favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Derby County in 0 · 13 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/42.75 goals/match

1.81 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/40.96 xG/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/42.01 xG/match

13.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/47.75 shots/match

8.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/415.3 shots/match

2.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/42.5 shots/match

2.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/46.25 shots/match

60%●Possessionseason · 4/440.5%

5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 4/44 corners/match

3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/45.75 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/414.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/40%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Ipswich Town97.9

Derby County6.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Ipswich Town35.4

Derby County32.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Ipswich Town74.3

Derby County8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Ipswich Town31.2

Derby County2.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town62.5

Derby County95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town52.1

Derby County27.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Ipswich Town47.4

Derby County34.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Ipswich Town4 matchesDerby County4 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.75 goals/match

1.81 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.96 xG/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shots4/47.75 shots/match

2.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲2.5 shots/match

60%●Possession4/440.5%

5 corners/match●Corners4/44 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Ipswich Town2 matchesDerby County2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4