Championship · 2025Fri, 22 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timePride Park StadiumFull-time recap

Derby County

1–1Full-time recap

Bristol City

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Derby County	Bristol City
Shots	5 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.47 xG/match	0.76 xG/match▲
Possession	52%●	48%
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	15 fouls/match	5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Derby County: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.52 xG. Bristol City: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Derby County 0.52 xG · Bristol City 0.73 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Derby County's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Derby County show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Derby County's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

7 shots/match▲ShotsDerby County · Bristol City11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Derby County	Bristol City	Baseline
Shots	7 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	9.17 shots/match
Shots against	14.3 shots/match	11 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Derby County favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Bristol City in 0 · 13 too close

1.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/31.67 goals/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/30.67 goals/match

0.78 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/30.93 xG/match

1.7 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.24 xG/match

7 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/311.3 shots/match

14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/311 shots/match

2.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/33 shots/match

6.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/33.33 shots/match

43.7%Possessionseason · 3/3●44%

4.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 3/34 corners/match

5.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/38 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/38 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/333%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/367%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Derby County25

Bristol City75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Derby County33.3

Bristol City66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Derby County25

Bristol City75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Derby County25

Bristol City75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Derby County75

Bristol City25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Derby County75

Bristol City25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Derby County50

Bristol City50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Derby County3 matchesBristol City3 matches

1.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/31.67 goals/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.67 goals/match

0.78 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲0.93 xG/match

7 shots/matchShots3/3▲11.3 shots/match

2.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲3 shots/match

43.7%Possession3/3●44%

4.33 corners/match●Corners3/34 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFouls3/38 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Derby County2 matchesBristol City2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.31 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.21 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 22 Aug 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4