Championship · 2025Sat, 23 Aug 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeSwansea.com StadiumFull-time recap

Swansea City

1–1Full-time recap

Watford

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Swansea City	Watford
Shots	11 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.68 xG/match▲	0.41 xG/match
Possession	58%●	42%
Corners	7 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Swansea City: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.67 xG. Watford: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Swansea City 0.67 xG · Watford 0.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Watford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Watford show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Watford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9 shots/match▲ShotsSwansea City · Watford12 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Swansea City	Watford	Baseline
Shots	9 shots/match	12 shots/match	12 shots/match
Shots against	7.67 shots/match	12 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13 fouls/matchFoulsSwansea City · Watford14 fouls/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Swansea City	Watford	Baseline
Fouls	13 fouls/match	14 fouls/match	11.5 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Swansea City favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Watford in 0 · 13 too close

0.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/31 goals/match

0.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/31 goals/match

0.64 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.06 xG/match

0.39 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/30.78 xG/match

9 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/312 shots/match

7.67 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/312 shots/match

2.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/33 shots/match

2.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/33.33 shots/match

53.3%●Possessionseason · 3/348.7%

4.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 3/32 corners/match

5.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/34.67 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/314 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/30%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/367%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Swansea City66.7

Watford39.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Swansea City10.4

Watford38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Swansea City84.7

Watford55.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Swansea City6.2

Watford47.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Swansea City68.8

Watford85.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Swansea City39.6

Watford2.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Swansea City31.2

Watford42.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Swansea City3 matchesWatford3 matches

0.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31 goals/match

0.64 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.06 xG/match

9 shots/matchShots3/3▲12 shots/match

2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲3 shots/match

53.3%●Possession3/348.7%

4.33 corners/match●Corners3/32 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Swansea City2 matchesWatford2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Aug 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4