Championship · 2025Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeThe DenFull-time recap

Millwall

WLW

0–2Full-time recap

Wrexham

LLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Millwall	Wrexham
Shots	21 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.76 xG/match▲	0.55 xG/match
Possession	60%●	40%
Corners	5 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Millwall: 21 shots, 2 on target, 2.00 xG. Wrexham: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Millwall 2.00 xG · Wrexham 0.52 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Millwall's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Millwall show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Millwall's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16 shots/match▲ShotsMillwall · Wrexham10.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Millwall	Wrexham	Baseline
Shots	16 shots/match	10.5 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	11.8 shots/match	21.5 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Millwall favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Wrexham in 0 · 13 too close

0.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.75 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.75 goals/match

1.46 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.44 xG/match

0.97 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/42.74 xG/match

16 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/410.5 shots/match

11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/421.5 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/43 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/46 shots/match

46%●Possessionseason · 4/440.8%

5.5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 4/43.25 corners/match

6.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/46.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/49.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/425%

50%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Millwall27.1

Wrexham10.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Millwall43.1

Wrexham41

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Millwall46.5

Wrexham11.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Millwall97.9

Wrexham64.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Millwall95.8

Wrexham14.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Millwall70.8

Wrexham8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Millwall70.8

Wrexham16.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Millwall4 matchesWrexham4 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match

1.46 xG/matchExpected goals4/41.44 xG/match

16 shots/match▲Shots4/410.5 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target4/43 shots/match

46%●Possession4/440.8%

5.5 corners/match●Corners4/43.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFouls4/49.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Millwall2 matchesWrexham2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4