Championship · 2025Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeRacecourse GroundFull-time recap
13Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWrexhamQueens Park Rangers
Shots21 shots/match15 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match6 shots/match
Expected goals2.02 xG/match1.43 xG/match
Possession61%39%
Corners12 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match10 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Queens Park Rangers's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Wrexham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Queens Park Rangers show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Queens Park Rangers's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/matchShotsWrexham · Queens Park Rangers12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWrexhamQueens Park RangersBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against20.2 shots/match16.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Wrexham have a visible home split

weak

Wrexham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.7 shots/matchShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Wrexham favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Queens Park Rangers in 5 · 5 too close

1.6 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/51.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/52.4 goals/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 5/50.98 xG/match
2.47 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 5/51.41 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/512.8 shots/match
20.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/516.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/53.8 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/55.2 shots/match
44.8%Possessionseason · 5/548.6%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/54.6 corners/match
7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/55.8 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
8.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/510 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/50%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/5100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wrexham22.9
Queens Park Rangers41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wrexham63.9
Queens Park Rangers66.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wrexham11.8
Queens Park Rangers12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wrexham72.9
Queens Park Rangers56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wrexham8.3
Queens Park Rangers27.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wrexham54.2
Queens Park Rangers41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wrexham46.4
Queens Park Rangers46.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goals5/50.98 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots5/512.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/53.8 shots/match
44.8%Possession5/548.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
Cards0/0
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goals5/50.98 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots5/512.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/53.8 shots/match
44.8%Possession5/548.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
Cards0/0
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goals5/50.98 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots5/512.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/53.8 shots/match
44.8%Possession5/548.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
Cards0/0
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/31.67 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/33.33 goals/match
1.78 xG/matchExpected goals3/30.85 xG/match
15.7 shots/matchShots3/312.7 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target3/33.33 shots/match
53%Possession3/346.7%
6.67 corners/matchCorners3/35.67 corners/match
Cards0/0
5.67 fouls/matchFouls3/39 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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