PitchMath
Championship · 2025Loftus Road Stadium

Queens Park Rangers 1–0 Stoke City · Championship

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Queens Park Rangers won 1–0.

Shots
147
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
1.331.09
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

Queens Park Rangers beat Stoke City 1–0. Recorded in this match (Queens Park Rangers – Stoke City): shots 14–7, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 1.33–1.09, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Stoke City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Stoke City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots7 shotsQueens Park Rangers 14 shots, Stoke City 7 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotQueens Park Rangers 7 shots, Stoke City 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.33 xG1.09 xGQueens Park Rangers 1.33 xG, Stoke City 1.09 xG
  • Possession35%65%Queens Park Rangers 35%, Stoke City 65%
  • Corners3 corners6 cornersQueens Park Rangers 3 corners, Stoke City 6 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls13 foulsQueens Park Rangers 8 fouls, Stoke City 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Richard Kone · Queens Park Rangers · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKoki Saito · Queens Park Rangers · 52′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNicolas Madsen · Queens Park Rangers · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Baker · Stoke City · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Vale · Queens Park Rangers · 67′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNicolas Madsen · Queens Park Rangers · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKoki Saito · Queens Park Rangers · 6′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRichard Kone · Queens Park Rangers · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMillion Manhoef · Stoke City · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKoki Saito · Queens Park Rangers · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAaron Cresswell · Stoke City · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLewis Baker · Stoke City · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRhys Norrington-Davies · Queens Park Rangers · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Vale · Queens Park Rangers · 75′ · 0.05 xG · goalAaron Cresswell · Stoke City · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLamine Cissé · Stoke City · 80′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRichard Kone · Queens Park Rangers · 57′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Vale · Queens Park Rangers · 4′ · 0.20 xG · on targetRumarn Burrell · Queens Park Rangers · 76′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedRumarn Burrell · Queens Park Rangers · 68′ · 0.34 xG · on targetMillion Manhoef · Stoke City · 53′ · 0.66 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Queens Park Rangers: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.35 xG. Stoke City: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Harvey Vale · Queens Park Rangers · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Queens Park Rangers 1.35 xG · Stoke City 0.98 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Queens Park Rangers
1Draws
2Stoke City
Stoke City — Queens Park Rangers · Championship3–1
Queens Park Rangers — Stoke City · Championship1–1
Stoke City — Queens Park Rangers · Championship1–0
Queens Park Rangers — Stoke City · Championship4–2
Stoke City — Queens Park Rangers · Championship0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Queens Park Rangers favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Stoke City in 7

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Queens Park Rangers6 matchesStoke City6 matches
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61.5 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 0.67 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.2 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots6/610.7 shots/match
4.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/64 shots/match
46.3%Possession6/6● 51.3%
4.33 corners/matchCorners6/6● 5.5 corners/match
9.67 fouls/matchFouls6/610.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsQueens Park RangersStoke City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headQueens Park Rangers — Stoke City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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