PitchMath
Championship · 2025St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Birmingham City 1–0 Swansea City · Championship

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Birmingham City won 1–0.

Shots
239
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
2.411.43
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Birmingham City beat Swansea City 1–0. Recorded in this match (Birmingham City – Swansea City): shots 23–9, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 2.41–1.43, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Swansea City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Swansea City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsBirmingham City · Swansea City10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBirmingham CitySwansea CityBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against6.67 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Birmingham City have a visible home split

weak

Birmingham City's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Swansea City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Swansea City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots9 shotsBirmingham City 23 shots, Swansea City 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsBirmingham City 7 shots, Swansea City 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.41 xG1.43 xGBirmingham City 2.41 xG, Swansea City 1.43 xG
  • Possession50%50%Birmingham City 50%, Swansea City 50%
  • Corners7 corners2 cornersBirmingham City 7 corners, Swansea City 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsBirmingham City 13 fouls, Swansea City 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lewis Koumas · Birmingham City · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 15′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEthan Galbraith · Swansea City · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEthan Galbraith · Swansea City · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEiran Cashin · Birmingham City · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Cochrane · Birmingham City · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEthan Galbraith · Swansea City · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Klarer · Birmingham City · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTommy Doyle · Birmingham City · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTommy Doyle · Birmingham City · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · Birmingham City · 24′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLewis Koumas · Birmingham City · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedŽan Vipotnik · Swansea City · 21′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlex Cochrane · Birmingham City · 57′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedŽan Vipotnik · Swansea City · 21′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · Birmingham City · 60′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLyndon Dykes · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.07 xG · goalDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 50′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedŽan Vipotnik · Swansea City · 47′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedLewis Koumas · Birmingham City · 46′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedŽan Vipotnik · Swansea City · 52′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 81′ · 0.30 xG · on targetKyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham City · 70′ · 0.36 xG · on targetŽan Vipotnik · Swansea City · 11′ · 0.41 xG · off target or blockedKyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.46 xG · on targetMarvin Ducksch · Birmingham City · 23′ · 0.49 xG · on targetZeidane Inoussa · Swansea City · 19′ · 0.56 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Birmingham City: 23 shots, 7 on target, 2.46 xG. Swansea City: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Lyndon Dykes · Birmingham City · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Birmingham City 2.46 xG · Swansea City 1.48 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Birmingham City
4Draws
0Swansea City
Birmingham City — Swansea City · Championship2–2
Swansea City — Birmingham City · Championship1–1
Swansea City — Birmingham City · Championship3–4
Birmingham City — Swansea City · Championship2–2
Swansea City — Birmingham City · Championship0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Birmingham City favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Swansea City in 2 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Birmingham City6 matchesSwansea City6 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1 goal/match
0.83 goals/matchGoals allowed6/60.83 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/60.94 xG/match
12.7 shots/match ▲Shots6/610.3 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 3.17 shots/match
56.5%Possession6/656.5%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/64.5 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls6/611.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBirmingham CitySwansea City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headBirmingham City — Swansea City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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