PitchMath
Championship · 2025bet365 Stadium

Stoke City 1–0 Wrexham · Championship

1–0Historical match

Wrexham

LWDDD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Stoke City won 1–0.

Shots
125
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.610.59
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stoke City beat Wrexham 1–0. Recorded in this match (Stoke City – Wrexham): shots 12–5, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.61–0.59, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Stoke City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stoke City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Wrexham have a visible away split

moderate

Wrexham's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.2 shots/match11 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Wrexham show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Wrexham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsStoke City · Wrexham11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStoke CityWrexhamBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match11 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match15.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots5 shotsStoke City 12 shots, Wrexham 5 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsStoke City 3 shots, Wrexham 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.61 xG0.59 xGStoke City 0.61 xG, Wrexham 0.59 xG
  • Possession56%44%Stoke City 56%, Wrexham 44%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersStoke City 6 corners, Wrexham 4 corners

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Sorba Thomas · Stoke City · 36′ · 0.01 xG · goalTatsuki Seko · Stoke City · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKieffer Moore · Wrexham · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJunior Tchamadeu · Stoke City · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTatsuki Seko · Stoke City · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDivin Mubama · Stoke City · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLewis Baker · Stoke City · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLamine Cissé · Stoke City · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDivin Mubama · Stoke City · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSam Smith · Wrexham · 86′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIssa Kaboré · Wrexham · 21′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDivin Mubama · Stoke City · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSorba Thomas · Stoke City · 50′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKieffer Moore · Wrexham · 14′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMillion Manhoef · Stoke City · 67′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSorba Thomas · Stoke City · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRyan Longman · Wrexham · 21′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stoke City: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.60 xG. Wrexham: 5 shots, 3 on target, 0.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Sorba Thomas · Stoke City · 36′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stoke City 0.60 xG · Wrexham 0.67 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stoke City favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Wrexham in 3

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stoke City10 matchesWrexham10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 1.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 1.32 xG/match
12.8 shots/match ▲Shots10/1011 shots/match
4.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
51.9% ●Possession10/1043.5%
6.5 corners/match ●Corners10/104.2 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls9/98 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStoke CityWrexham
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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