PitchMath
Championship · 2025Racecourse Ground

Wrexham 1–0 Oxford United · Championship

Wrexham

WDDDL
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Wrexham won 1–0.

Expected goals
0.770.15

Full time

What the match recorded

Wrexham beat Oxford United 1–0. Recorded in this match (Wrexham – Oxford United): expected goals 0.77–0.15. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Oxford United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Oxford United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Wrexham have a visible home split

moderate

Wrexham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Oxford United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Oxford United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsWrexham · Oxford United14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWrexhamOxford UnitedBaseline
Shots11 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against15.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Expected goals0.77 xG0.15 xGWrexham 0.77 xG, Oxford United 0.15 xG

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kieffer Moore · Wrexham · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLiberato Cacace · Wrexham · 1′ · 0.02 xG · on targetWill Vaulks · Oxford United · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedStanley Mills · Oxford United · 23′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKieffer Moore · Wrexham · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCallum Doyle · Wrexham · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNathan Broadhead · Wrexham · 14′ · 0.06 xG · goalKieffer Moore · Wrexham · 14′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Thomason · Wrexham · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLiberato Cacace · Wrexham · 9′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Wrexham: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.41 xG. Oxford United: 2 shots, 1 on target, 0.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Nathan Broadhead · Wrexham · 14′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Wrexham 0.41 xG · Oxford United 0.05 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Wrexham favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Oxford United in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Wrexham11 matchesOxford United11 matches
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111 goal/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 1.27 goals/match
1.27 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/111.17 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 14.3 shots/match
4.1 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
43.5% ●Possession10/1043.2%
4.2 corners/match ●Corners10/103.3 corners/match
8 fouls/matchFouls9/911.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 22 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWrexhamOxford United
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required