Championship · 2025Thu, 1 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeLoftus Road StadiumFull-time recap
12Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricQueens Park RangersNorwich City
Shots10 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match
Expected goals0.72 xG/match1.9 xG/match
Possession52%48%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kenny McLean · Norwich City · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsaac Hayden · Queens Park Rangers · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRichard Kone · Queens Park Rangers · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatěj Jurásek · Norwich City · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJacob Wright · Norwich City · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJosh Sargent · Norwich City · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKaramoko Dembélé · Queens Park Rangers · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatěj Jurásek · Norwich City · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPelle Mattsson · Norwich City · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRhys Norrington-Davies · Queens Park Rangers · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Salif Mbengue · Queens Park Rangers · 90′ · 0.03 xG · goalKwame Poku · Queens Park Rangers · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJovon Makama · Norwich City · 90′ · 0.05 xG · goalRichard Kone · Queens Park Rangers · 50′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJacob Wright · Norwich City · 62′ · 0.08 xG · on targetRumarn Burrell · Queens Park Rangers · 31′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSteve Cook · Queens Park Rangers · 15′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSteve Cook · Queens Park Rangers · 90′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMatěj Jurásek · Norwich City · 37′ · 0.29 xG · on targetJosh Sargent · Norwich City · 62′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blockedJosh Sargent · Norwich City · 46′ · 0.83 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Queens Park Rangers: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG. Norwich City: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.90 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Amadou Salif Mbengue · Queens Park Rangers · 90′Josh Sargent · Norwich City · 46′Jovon Makama · Norwich City · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Queens Park Rangers 0.70 xG · Norwich City 1.90 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Queens Park Rangers, Norwich City. A second useful context is: Queens Park Rangers's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Queens Park Rangers, Norwich City.

2.8 daysRest daysQueens Park Rangers · Norwich City2.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricQueens Park RangersNorwich CityBaseline
Rest days2.8 days2.8 days
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Queens Park Rangers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Queens Park Rangers's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.2 shots/matchShotsLast 5 · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.2 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Queens Park Rangers have a visible home split

moderate

Queens Park Rangers's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/matchShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Queens Park Rangers
0Draws
1Norwich City
Norwich CityQueens Park Rangers · Championship31

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Queens Park Rangers favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Norwich City in 1 · 7 too close

1.4 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/251.12 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/251.48 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 25/251.29 xG/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/251.58 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/2412.2 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/2413.6 shots/match
3.79 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/243.88 shots/match
3.79 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/244.33 shots/match
46.8%Possessionseason · 24/2451.6%
4.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/244.83 corners/match
5.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/245.58 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/249.75 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/258%
88%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Queens Park Rangers31.2
Norwich City56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Queens Park Rangers54.2
Norwich City44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Queens Park Rangers43.7
Norwich City22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Queens Park Rangers77.1
Norwich City27.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Queens Park Rangers39.6
Norwich City14.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 46%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Queens Park Rangers52.1
Norwich City33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Queens Park Rangers47.9
Norwich City37
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.15 xG/match
9.2 shots/matchShots5/511.6 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/53.4 shots/match
44.4%Possession5/551%
4 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.29 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots10/1013.1 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/104.4 shots/match
43.9%Possession10/1051.2%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored25/251.12 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed25/251.48 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals25/251.29 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots24/2412.2 shots/match
3.79 shots/matchShots on target24/243.88 shots/match
46.8%Possession24/2451.6%
4.96 corners/matchCorners24/244.83 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.6 fouls/matchFouls23/249.75 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 13 matches
1.75 goals/matchGoals scored12/131.23 goals/match
1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed12/131.54 goals/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goals12/131.28 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots12/1210.8 shots/match
4.42 shots/matchShots on target12/123.75 shots/match
48%Possession12/1248.7%
5.75 corners/matchCorners12/124 corners/match
Cards0/0
11 fouls/matchFouls11/1210.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.8 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 1 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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