PitchMath
Championship · 2025Vicarage Road

Watford 3–0 Birmingham City · Championship

Watford

DDWWW
3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Watford won 3–0.

Shots
136
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.560.4
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Watford beat Birmingham City 3–0. Recorded in this match (Watford – Birmingham City): shots 13–6, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.56–0.4, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Birmingham City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Birmingham City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.28 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.28 goals/match1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Birmingham City have a visible away split

strong

Birmingham City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.75 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.75 shots/match14.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Watford, Birmingham City.

2.8 days ▲Rest daysWatford · Birmingham City2.78 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWatfordBirmingham CityBaseline
Rest days2.8 days2.78 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots6 shotsWatford 13 shots, Birmingham City 6 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsWatford 6 shots, Birmingham City 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.56 xG0.4 xGWatford 1.56 xG, Birmingham City 0.4 xG
  • Possession45%55%Watford 45%, Birmingham City 55%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersWatford 4 corners, Birmingham City 4 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls14 foulsWatford 5 fouls, Birmingham City 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarc Bola · Watford · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKeshi Anderson · Birmingham City · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVivaldo · Watford · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham City · 10′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLuca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEiran Cashin · Birmingham City · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNestory Irankunda · Watford · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarc Bola · Watford · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 47′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPatrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 40′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 44′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedTom Ince · Watford · 60′ · 0.12 xG · goalOthmane Maamma · Watford · 67′ · 0.12 xG · on targetTom Ince · Watford · 38′ · 0.15 xG · on targetTom Ince · Watford · 19′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMarc Bola · Watford · 57′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedTom Ince · Watford · 38′ · 0.23 xG · goalTom Ince · Watford · 9′ · 0.44 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Watford: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.61 xG. Birmingham City: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Tom Ince · Watford · 9′Tom Ince · Watford · 38′Tom Ince · Watford · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Watford 1.61 xG · Birmingham City 0.40 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Watford
1Draws
1Birmingham City
Birmingham City — Watford · Championship2–1
Birmingham City — Watford · Championship0–1
Watford — Birmingham City · Championship2–0
Watford — Birmingham City · Championship3–0
Birmingham City — Watford · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Watford favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Birmingham City in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Watford25 matchesBirmingham City25 matches
1.48 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.28 goals/match
1.16 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.36 goals/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.49 xG/match
13.8 shots/matchShots25/2414.4 shots/match
4.76 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/243.83 shots/match
51.2%Possession25/24● 55.9%
4.44 corners/matchCorners25/24● 5.5 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls24/2411.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 1 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWatfordBirmingham City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headWatford — Birmingham City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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